# Tesla



## GURPS

Shares Hit $ 900 .......


are they really that valuable


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## GURPS

The latest surge was partly fueled by Panasonic Corp <6752.T> saying on Monday its automotive battery venture with Tesla was in the black for the first time.

Some analysts have attributed the rally to short covering as well. Short interest in Tesla stood at 13.8% as of Jan. 30, according to Refinitiv data.

Shares of heavily shorted companies can at times get pushed higher as traders rush to buy stock to cover their short bets, triggering what is known as a “short squeeze”.

Panasonic shares closed up 10%, while those of Tesla’s Asian suppliers South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd <051910.KS> and China’s CATL <300750.SZ> also closed higher.

“Investors are now starting to believe that Tesla can make mass-volume electric vehicles, and automakers, battery makers and suppliers can make money from EVs,” said analyst Cho Hyun-ryul, at Samsung Securities.

https://www.oann.com/another-day-another-record-tesla-shares-hit-900/


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## Spitfire

Greetings:

I was watching after hours trading early this morning and it was increasing about 2% every 15 minutes. Never seen anything like this before.

Really makes no sense. Company lost 3/4 of a billion last year.

Part of this likely a short squeeze.


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## glhs837

Just nuts. Lots going on though, and hard to see the crystal ball clearly enough. Good full range analysis here. 

https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-price-target 

Battery and Powertrain Investor Day, thought to be happening on 4/20  Should be the next big piece of information. If they announce some of the rumored and extrapolated bits, should be interesting.  One reason they are not as profitable as folks say is constant reinvestment. Buying things like 

Grohmann, a German company specializing in automation of assembly lines, Mercedes recently said that not having Grohmann available is hurting their ability to ramp EV production. .
Maxwell, who holds patents in two key areas, a dry cell battery assembly method that can significantly change the math regarding battery cell/pack production, and super capacitors.
They also bought Hibar systems, experts in battery production, the battery equivalent to Grohmann.

Expected announcements in April - Lower production costs and increases in production capacity  and production speed for both batteries and motors, along with increases in both storage capacity and longevity of packs and motors. Increases in production capacity can shift expected delivery of both Semi and Cybertruck to the left. 

Not making money because you are losing money on product is one thing. Not showing a profit because you are spending to take you to another level, thats not operating at a loss, thats reinvestment. I think this current high wont last, but I'll bet the comedown still stops comfortably higher than where we were in January.


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## transporter

GURPS said:


> Shares Hit $ 900 .......
> 
> 
> are they really that valuable



Did you out and buy yours, yesterday comrade?!?!?!


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## GURPS

transporter said:


> Did you out and buy yours, yesterday comrade?!?!?!




WTF are you trying to say ya dumb Cun ty


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## gemma_rae

GURPS said:


> WTF are you trying to say ya dumb Cun ty


I don't think IT's strategy of buying high and selling low is working.


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## Clem72

Tesla stock does not obey the laws of common sense. Do not try to apply normal investing know-how to this company or it's stock.

That said, looks like a small spike based on the battery news and UK moving up their timetable for all-electric car requirement may have started a short squeeze followed by covering of convertable debt.  When it all settles I expect they will still be up 15-20%.


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## glhs837

This shows it best, a 30 day slice. You could connect two sides of that insane spike with a smooth line that still has an upward slope. Chinas issues will affect Chinese deliveries, thats not a Tesla caused issue but will affect the price downward a little, I think. You can expect a to see another increase when Model Y deliveries begin in March instead of the expected October/Nov 20 they were expected to make.


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## Clem72

glhs837 said:


> This shows it best, a 30 day slice. You could connect two sides of that insane spike with a smooth line that still has an upward slope. Chinas issues will affect Chinese deliveries, thats not a Tesla caused issue but will affect the price downward a little, I think. You can expect a to see another increase when Model Y deliveries begin in March instead of the expected October/Nov 20 they were expected to make.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 145028



That's also cherry picked.  Go back 4 months and they are up over 100%


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## glhs837

Clem72 said:


> That's also cherry picked.  Go back 4 months and they are up over 100%




Not "cherry picked" in that sense. This thread is about this crazy spike. What I was trying to show with that 30 day timeframe was the spike was not a precursor to a crash, but rather that the spikes downside still shows the rate if increase we were seeing before the spike. I'm long Tesla myself, bought a few years back at about $330, so I'm pretty happy.  So I know exactly how far up they are from various points in time, and why. I think $600-$700 is a valid place to be right now
\
EDIT: Now, if Battery and Powertrain Investor Day goes as I expect, I would not be surprised to see it go over 1,000 and stay for the most part. China developments notwithstanding of course.


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## PeoplesElbow

Availibilty of lithium to make batteries will be their Achilles heel.


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## TPD

Oh heck - I missed this thread.  I just posted a new thread about Tesla (and other stocks).  Was looking to buy some back in December at $430.  $679 on today's close after going over $900.  Hmmmm


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## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> Availibilty of lithium to make batteries will be their Achilles heel.




Nah, we're fine on lithium until we get it from asteroids. And Tesla led with locking in suppliers for quite a while. 

https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/availability_of_lithium

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/03/26/who-are-teslas-lithium-suppliers.aspx

And I know the virus thing is screwing up everything right now, but stuff coming donw the pike looks good. 

1. Battery and Powertrain Investor day is expected to have some pretty serious battery chemistry and manufacturing advances announced, And not ones that will bear fruit in five years, but this year or next year. New stronger aluminum alloys that will not only decrease weight in motors, but also have better electrical properties increasing efficiency. Both of which increase range. 

2. Model Y release in March instead of November, possibly being manufactured with new large parts casting methods that will decrease cost and complexity. Those methods might also work backwards into Model 3 production. 

3. Those things are just for 2020. Roadster doesnt really move the money needle any, but the semi and the cybertruck in 2021  have potential. 

4. All the "tesla killers" that were coming came and killed nothing. The VW car is a train wreck. The trucks will be interesting to see Hard to judge competition since nobody is actually in production yet.


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## GWguy

People are only buying Teslas for the battery packs for the impending virus apocalypse. Preppers.


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## GURPS

New Battery Tech Coming is getting away from Lithium


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## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> Nah, we're fine on lithium until we get it from asteroids. And Tesla led with locking in suppliers for quite a while.
> 
> https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/availability_of_lithium
> 
> https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/03/26/who-are-teslas-lithium-suppliers.aspx
> 
> And I know the virus thing is screwing up everything right now, but stuff coming donw the pike looks good.
> 
> 1. Battery and Powertrain Investor day is expected to have some pretty serious battery chemistry and manufacturing advances announced, And not ones that will bear fruit in five years, but this year or next year. New stronger aluminum alloys that will not only decrease weight in motors, but also have better electrical properties increasing efficiency. Both of which increase range.
> 
> 2. Model Y release in March instead of November, possibly being manufactured with new large parts casting methods that will decrease cost and complexity. Those methods might also work backwards into Model 3 production.
> 
> 3. Those things are just for 2020. Roadster doesnt really move the money needle any, but the semi and the cybertruck in 2021  have potential.
> 
> 4. All the "tesla killers" that were coming came and killed nothing. The VW car is a train wreck. The trucks will be interesting to see Hard to judge competition since nobody is actually in production yet.


Maybe with the batteries, but aluminum.....doubtful. one of the things that I know real well is aluminum alloys. 7075 is the strongest useful alloy, there is at least one stronger (7079) but it has problems with something called stress corrosion cracking, they tried to use it on the Apollo program but it cracked just setting on the shelf. 7075 is too expensive to use in the auto industry for anything but super cars.


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## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> Maybe with the batteries, but aluminum.....doubtful. one of the things that I know real well is aluminum alloys. 7075 is the strongest useful alloy, there is at least one stronger (7079) but it has problems with something called stress corrosion cracking, they tried to use it on the Apollo program but it cracked just setting on the shelf. 7075 is too expensive to use in the auto industry for anything but super cars.



https://electrek.co/2020/02/07/tesla-aluminum-alloys-die-casting-in-electric-car-parts/


Help me parse this then. Keeping in mind, this isnt for doors or hoods, this alloy seems destined for use in the electrical system, or they wouldn't focus on those properties in the patent, correct? Here's the full daya dump, including the whole patent application, I would appreciate an experts opinion.


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## glhs837

GWguy said:


> People are only buying Teslas for the battery packs for the impending virus apocalypse. Preppers.




When the grid collapses, you gotta power the perimeter fence somehow......  Although you can just buy the powerpack in a convenient home package already called a PowerWall.  Although the serious guys are buying these...... do the whole street  

https://www.tesla.com/powerpack

If you are doing the whole subdivision, step up to these....

https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/29/20746170/tesla-megapack-battery-pge-storage-announced

Australia already did and is expanding the largest grid storage in the world. CA is getting ready to top them.... 

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/2...10x-bigger-than-worlds-biggest-battery-plant/


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## PeoplesElbow

Ah, they aren't necessarily looking for a better alloy, they are looking for a better alloy to cast (a relatively cheap process), that makes more sense. 

My guess is for main electrical lines, something like a bus bar. 

I am not a fan of aluminum as a conductor, it is very good but has problems due to high thermal expansion and fatigue issues unless it's copper clad. Many trailer fires were caused due to this in the 70s. 

The other possibility is a cast motor case that doesnt have to be wound, reducing its weight and cost.


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## GWguy

Bus bar...


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## glhs837

So, here we are. 


Never had battery and powertrain day. Thats going to happen in September, I think.
Q2 deliveries were above even the most optimistic analysts at over 90K vehicles.
Word of a million mile battery announcement and beginning Semi production this year.
$3,000 price drop on the Model Y Long Range AWD version, with word that the 35K Standard Range will not be produced as it's range would be around 250 miles and therefore not up to Teslas standards. Price drop, IMO, is also due to production cost decreases allowing them to still make a profit on them after the price drop.
Since they posted a profit on selling fewer cars in Q1, expected to be a profitable Q2 which could trigger placement in the S&P 500, which would trigger a wave of institutional buying.

Todays price is over $1,500 a share. Crazy. I'm not sure we'll ever see the downside of $1200 a share again.


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## TPD

Tesla - 5 for 1 split yesterday.  I now have 15 shares!  
My $2000 has turned into $7500 in less than 6 months.  Sell now or longterm holding?  I'm hoping Tesla is the next Apple or Amazon...


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## PeoplesElbow

TPD said:


> Tesla - 5 for 1 split yesterday.  I now have 15 shares!
> My $2000 has turned into $7500 in less than 6 months.  Sell now or longterm holding?  I'm hoping Tesla is the next Apple or Amazon...


Teslas valuation is 10x that of GM, GM has over 10x the free cash flow of Tesla. 

Apple actually has a pretty low valuation to free cash flow ratio. TSLA will come down in valuation to cash flow ratio eventually.


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## glhs837

TPD said:


> Tesla - 5 for 1 split yesterday.  I now have 15 shares!
> My $2000 has turned into $7500 in less than 6 months.  Sell now or longterm holding?  I'm hoping Tesla is the next Apple or Amazon...




Hold, if you have a couple - three years. I now have 50 shares. My $3,000 is now over $20,000 in a little over 3 years. I'm at least five years long, maybe more. 


Giga Shanghai just now getting ready to produce the Model Y, which should sell even better than the Model 3 did there. Production costs not much more than Model 3, higher price and margins. Model 3 going to be cheaper to produce thanks to giga casting and heat pump commonality with Model Y
Giga Berlin expected to come online before next summer, allowing more competitive pricing across Europe due to lack of import taxes. And increases in production efficiency as seen above.
Tera Austin expected to come online producing Cybertrucks before the end of calendar 2021, and Semis not long after that.
Grid/residential storage products will increase as a shares of business.
Competitors are generally acknowledged to be years behind is most important aspects of EVs, and are introducing products aimed at where TEsla was, not where they will be.


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## glhs837

Giga Berlin, April 20th - Last tree cleared, empty level dirt field



Giga Berlin - August 29th  buildings going up far faster than anyone expected. The Germans have evidently watched the ShangHai plant go from dirt field to producing cars in 10 months as a challenge and are saying "Hold my stein"


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## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> Ah, they aren't necessarily looking for a better alloy, they are looking for a better alloy to cast (a relatively cheap process), that makes more sense.
> 
> My guess is for main electrical lines, something like a bus bar.
> 
> I am not a fan of aluminum as a conductor, it is very good but has problems due to high thermal expansion and fatigue issues unless it's copper clad. Many trailer fires were caused due to this in the 70s.
> 
> The other possibility is a cast motor case that doesnt have to be wound, reducing its weight and cost.




Just thought I would revisit this since we now know what they were after. The rear subframe of the Model Y was introduced as a 2 piece casting, using one of the largest aluminum pressure casting machines. Those two pieces replaced what in the Model 3 was 70 individual pieces of stamped metal. As soon as that worked, Telsa ordered another machine from Idra for the largest and most powerful high pressure direct casting machine they have ever made. This new machine makes that entire rear subframe including rear crumple rails in one casting. With I think a 90 second cycle time. The savings in time, machinery cost, manpower, and materials is pretty huge. This technique looks to port directly over to the Model 3 using eh exact same part.  

Thats what this alloy was for, to be better suited to the demands of this ridiculously fast and high pressure casting with integrated cooling. 



"Shots of molten aluminium weighing 80 kilograms (180 lb) are injected into the cold-chamber casting mold with a velocity of 10 metres per second (22 mph; 36 km/h). " 

The first and second of these are already working in Fremont, two others are setting up in ShangHai, and Berlin is planning to install eight of them.


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## GURPS

Technology is awesome


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## PeoplesElbow

Not a fan of cast parts, repair could be difficult. Being in aviation I like formed sheet metal and machined parts.

But very cool and innovative.


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## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> Not a fan of cast parts, repair could be difficult. Being in aviation I like formed sheet metal and machined parts.
> 
> But very cool and innovative.




Usually, if a uni-body cars structure that deep is compromised, nobody is repairing it anyway. Not outside of a salvage title anyway. Because unlike a 90 million  dollar airframe, a 30-40K car isnt worth removing and replacing all that complex structure.


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## TPD

Wow - Tesla closed at $705 yesterday.  Adjusting for the split, when this thread was started, Tesla was trading at $180, dipped below $100, and now at $705 - all in 10 months.  Pigs get fatter, hogs get slaughtered - at the moment I like being a pig...


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## glhs837

TPD said:


> Wow - Tesla closed at $705 yesterday.  Adjusting for the split, when this thread was started, Tesla was trading at $180, dipped below $100, and now at $705 - all in 10 months.  Pigs get fatter, hogs get slaughtered - at the moment I like being a pig...


 Back in mid-september, I rolled over an old 401k. Kept most of it in the new companies 401k, took about 30% into my "billionaires fund" Tesla, Alphabet so I can have some SpaceX, Amazon, and Google. A good majority of that went right into Tesla, it was about 380 a share post split. So I'm feeling good. I also feel good long term. More analysts are seeing the larger picture. Shanghai has dropped the price of the Model Y and 3 10k and they are still making money on them. Berlin should be cranking out cars by fall, which will drop the price by 10k or so since they won't have import taxes. Austin shloud be in preproduction or early production by November/December, Semi program ramping up. New style cell production should be gone. Lots going on as always.


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## TPD

glhs837 said:


> Back in mid-september, I rolled over an old 401k. Kept most of it in the new companies 401k, took about 30% into my "billionaires fund" Tesla, Alphabet so I can have some SpaceX, Amazon, and Google. A good majority of that went right into Tesla, it was about 380 a share post split. So I'm feeling good. I also feel good long term. More analysts are seeing the larger picture. Shanghai has dropped the price of the Model Y and 3 10k and they are still making money on them. Berlin should be cranking out cars by fall, which will drop the price by 10k or so since they won't have import taxes. Austin shloud be in preproduction or early production by November/December, Semi program ramping up. New style cell production should be gone. Lots going on as always.



Sounds like you made some great financial moves!  I've got $100 per month coming out of my checking acct automatically buying more Tesla stock - baby steps for me. Thanks for the Tesla operations update.


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## glhs837

Interesting bit of news here. One item that allows for the price drop is the fact that they are using cast front and rear subframes. The cost savings in not having to stamp, finish, weld, screw, bolt and braze and paint 70 individual pieces of metal to make each one of these subframes is a huge cost savings in labor and tooling since you dont need all those stamping presses to turn out the 70 pieces. 









						Rumor: Tesla China-Made Model Y Surpassed 100K Orders within 10hrs of New Pricing
					

As we reported yesterday, Tesla China Launches Rock Bottom Model Y Prices With Immediate Delivery In Jan 2021. The starting prices of the two variants are 339,900 YUAN ($51,890 USD) for the long ranger version and 369,900 YUAN ($56,482 USD) for the performance version. And with further Tesmanian...




					www.tesmanian.com


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## TPD

So Tesla.....$705 to $880 in 8 days


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## glhs837

TPD said:


> So Tesla.....$705 to $880 in 8 days




I dont even know. Even if it drops by half, I'm still up. Well, there were two pieces of good news. 


Solid hints that the 25K car for China is well under development and could be ready for sale in 2022. That would print money in a huge way.
NHTSA released its findings on its unintended acceleration investigation which basically said "Nothingburger, idiots hit the wrong freaking pedal"


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## PeoplesElbow

Wasn't that long ago concerns of nickel shortages were called absurd.









						Tesla Is Shifting All Standard Range EVs To LFP To Ensure Supply
					

Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla is “shifting standard range cars to an iron cathode,” or LFP battery packs. It would ensure there’s no battery pack shortage.




					insideevs.com


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## PeoplesElbow

I been closely watching opinions of people that own Teslas and people that own PHEVs because I am a bigger believer in PHEVs than BEVs. I am finding a lot of stories like this, people replacing their BEV with PHEVs.









						Cold Tesla, Warm Prime
					

I don’t live in the tundra of Canada but this last winter our Prime kept us warm and I did not need to pre-heat for 20 minutes before driving unlike the Tesla  The range did drop from 42 miles to 34 miles when temps dropped into the 20’s but I could jump in start turn on heated seats and go and...




					www.rav4world.com


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## PeoplesElbow

If I had owned Tesla I would have gotten out on the way down by $600. 









						Tesla is stuck with over 10,000 cars on factory hold, resulting in a logistical nightmare
					

Tesla has over 10,000 electric cars that came out of Fremont Factory on a “containment hold” and can’t deliver them to customers, according to sources familiar with the matter. It is likely going to lead to a logistical nightmare at the end of the quarter. Since Tesla owns its entire...




					electrek.co
				




Competition is coming. Check out Fisker if wanting to get in early on an EV stock.


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## glhs837

I keep waiting for that competition. So far not a lot to look at. Fisker might make it, might not. They hired Magna to make the one, now Foxconn, who have never built cars, is going to jump in. A bit early to decide if thats going to work out, IMO. 

I do own, and I'm holding for quite a while. 10,000 cars might seem like a lot, but in the larger scheme..... not so much, I think. Two factories coming online this year, new casting mthods to drop the cost to make them, battery factories co-located with those factories reducing cost even further. Will still be a good year, with 22 looking to be even better as four factories ramp to full production with lower cost vehicles. 









						Here Are the Models That Are Being Affected by the Chip Shortage
					

Some big names have temporarily stopped or cut back on production because of a worldwide semiconductor shortage, including the Ford F-150, the Jeep Grand Cherokee, and the Mercedes-Benz C-class.




					www.caranddriver.com


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## Sneakers

Ford is announcing an all electric F-150.


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## RoseRed

Sneakers said:


> Ford is announcing an all electric F-150.


Isn't that what Biden test drove today?


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## Sneakers

RoseRed said:


> Isn't that what Biden test drove today?


yes


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## glhs837

The official unveiling tomorrow with all the numbers and such. I think Joe dropped some numbers today but I didn't look at them yet. Just have to see where the specs and numbers fall out. The problem they will face is how to make these with enough range and performance for a competitive price. Takes a huge battery, and efficient use of it. And great aero...nevermind. Tune in after the reveal.


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## Sneakers

glhs837 said:


> The problem they will face is how to make these with enough range and performance for a competitive price.


I'll be interested in that too.  One of the reasons I have a truck is for towing and sometimes that towing is very long distance.  That's going to be tough with electric.


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## jrt_ms1995

glhs837 said:


> Here Are the Models That Are Being Affected by the Chip Shortage
> 
> 
> Some big names have temporarily stopped or cut back on production because of a worldwide semiconductor shortage, including the Ford F-150, the Jeep Grand Cherokee, and the Mercedes-Benz C-class.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.caranddriver.com


In my perfect world, there wouldn't be any chips in a car.


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## Sneakers

jrt_ms1995 said:


> In my perfect world, there wouldn't be any chips in a car.


Especially the chip on the shoulder of some drivers.


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## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> I keep waiting for that competition. So far not a lot to look at. Fisker might make it, might not. They hired Magna to make the one, now Foxconn, who have never built cars, is going to jump in. A bit early to decide if thats going to work out, IMO.
> 
> I do own, and I'm holding for quite a while. 10,000 cars might seem like a lot, but in the larger scheme..... not so much, I think. Two factories coming online this year, new casting mthods to drop the cost to make them, battery factories co-located with those factories reducing cost even further. Will still be a good year, with 22 looking to be even better as four factories ramp to full production with lower cost vehicles.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Here Are the Models That Are Being Affected by the Chip Shortage
> 
> 
> Some big names have temporarily stopped or cut back on production because of a worldwide semiconductor shortage, including the Ford F-150, the Jeep Grand Cherokee, and the Mercedes-Benz C-class.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.caranddriver.com


I think Teslas high multiple is due to the lack of competition. Their biggest direct competition in the US will be Ford and GM with Toyotas PHEVs also being a serious threat. If they do a PHEV Tundra that will win over those wanting to tow without thinking about having to charge mid tow.


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## Sneakers

PeoplesElbow said:


> I think Teslas high multiple is due to the lack of competition. Their biggest direct competition in the US will be Ford and GM with Toyotas PHEVs also being a serious threat. If they do a PHEV Tundra that will win over those wanting to tow without thinking about having to charge mid tow.


Well, this is interesting too.  Ford has a version of the F-150 with a large generator built into the transmission to provide 240vac power at camp and work sites.  If someone were to implement a large generator into a PHEV and use it while the vehicle was in ICE mode, in theory the EV batteries could be charged while driving.


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## PeoplesElbow

Sneakers said:


> Well, this is interesting too.  Ford has a version of the F-150 with a large generator built into the transmission to provide 240vac power at camp and work sites.  If someone were to implement a large generator into a PHEV and use it while the vehicle was in ICE mode, in theory the EV batteries could be charged while driving.


That is how a PHEV works, just like a hybrid with an bigger battery, bigger traction motor, and a plug. Some people actually never plug them in. 

The Toyota PHEV RAV4 Prime is currently selling for $10k above MSRP if you can get one.


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## GURPS

*Electric Ford F-150 Lightning's Battery Weighs Over 1,800 Pounds By Itself*



The electric Ford F-150 Lightning is being revealed in full tomorrow after years of hype, even though it made a surprise appearance today. The battery-powered pickup will be one of the automaker's most important models ever, and it signals the brand's commitment to EVs by completely transforming the country's best-selling vehicle, full stop.

U.S. President Joe Biden toured Ford's Rouge Electric Vehicle plant on Tuesday to get a better understanding of the company's approach to zero-emission cars and trucks, unmasking the F-150 Lightning in the process. The president also spent some time with the truck's underpinnings, previewing how the battery pack fits within the frame--all 1,800-plus pounds of it.





that will be one hell of a fire


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## Sneakers

PeoplesElbow said:


> That is how a PHEV works, just like a hybrid with an bigger battery, bigger traction motor, and a plug. Some people actually never plug them in.


I wasn't aware anyone had moved to on-board charging yet, seemed it was either battery or gas operation, but not charging while driving.


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## GURPS

Someone is working on wireless charging while you drive


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## PeoplesElbow

If TSLA drops below 550 it's broken what I think will be it's resistance point. Their exposure to BTC is really bad considering what just happened.


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## glhs837

Sneakers said:


> I'll be interested in that too.  One of the reasons I have a truck is for towing and sometimes that towing is very long distance.  That's going to be tough with electric.



Yeah, thats why they are targeting the 1/2 tons. You "tow long, tow large" folks are into the bigger trucks, generally. Unless you pack some battery into the trailer and aero the heck out of it, most likely  towing like you do is a non-starter. 





PeoplesElbow said:


> I think Teslas high multiple is due to the lack of competition. Their biggest direct competition in the US will be Ford and GM with Toyotas PHEVs also being a serious threat. If they do a PHEV Tundra that will win over those wanting to tow without thinking about having to charge mid tow.



See, the issue with PEHVs is that you lose a lot of the benefits of EVs, namely mechanical simplicity and lack of required maint. 




GURPS said:


> Someone is working on wireless charging while you drive



I think that methods lack of efficiency will make sure it's never widespread.


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## Sneakers

glhs837 said:


> Yeah, thats why they are targeting the 1/2 tons. You "tow long, tow large" folks are into the bigger trucks, generally. Unless you pack some battery into the trailer and aero the heck out of it, most likely towing like you do is a non-starter.


I'm in the 1/2 ton class, GMC Sierra 1500.  I don't tow huge trailers, but have been known to pull a car carrier across the country, and lots of pulling motorcycles and small campers anywhere from NY to NC to AR.  Even a small trailer would add significantly to an EV's load and power consumption.

The new EV trucks are def on my radar...


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## RoseRed

Electric Ford F-150 Lightning pickup: Here's how to watch the reveal | Fox News


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## Sneakers

They call it a Lightning because they expect lots of sparks to fly?


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## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> See, the issue with PEHVs is that you lose a lot of the benefits of EVs, namely mechanical simplicity and lack of required maint.


Maybe of pure electric vehicles, but it is a misconception they are more complicated than ICE vehicles. With Toyotas there is no true transmission and there is almost no brake wear, no starter , no altenator, so the maint is significantly less for a HEV. The PHEV is used a lot for short trips as a BEV and then for longer ones as a HEV on steroids. Something like a Tundra used to tow and with a no towing 40 mile battery only range for around town trips would be awesome.


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## PeoplesElbow

I hope Tesla doesn't trust China, they have shown they are all in to make them fail in favor of their home grown EVs.









						Chinese Media: Sorry For Spreading Tesla Brake Failure Rumors
					

Tesla has had its share of problems over the years, but it's also up against a barrage of media reports from anonymous sources, and they're missing key details.




					insideevs.com


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## Kyle

Ford F-150 Lightning pre-orders hit 100K
The full-size, all-electric pickup truck starts at $39,974 and comes with standard all-wheel drive and a range of 230 miles per charge










						Ford F-150 Lightning pre-orders hit 100K
					

Ford's reservations for the all-electric pickup, which will officially open this fall, only require a $100 refundable deposit.




					www.foxbusiness.com


----------



## glhs837

Kyle said:


> Ford F-150 Lightning pre-orders hit 100K
> The full-size, all-electric pickup truck starts at $39,974 and comes with standard all-wheel drive and a range of 230 miles per charge
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ford F-150 Lightning pre-orders hit 100K
> 
> 
> Ford's reservations for the all-electric pickup, which will officially open this fall, only require a $100 refundable deposit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxbusiness.com



The issue is, and this might not matter if you are #blueovalfortlyfeyo, is that the only thing it brings that the CT of the same price doesn't is AWD. Payload, towing and range are all better with the steel truck. Oh, and on the fly adjustable air suspension that self adjusts for payload and towed items. And a computer system also calculates weight and drag, and applies that to range. If you use the nav, it will even correct for altitude changes on your trip. Heading up to the Blue Ridge parkway, it would subtract range since you would be going uphill, and add when you come back down. Also dynamically adjusts suspension and braking according to loads.


----------



## Sneakers

All that is nice, but I'm still a 'drive by the seat of my pants' driver.  One of the reasons I like the Slingshot, it's a frame with a motor and some plastic shell.  Speedo and gas gauge is all I need.

Used to be if you had a truck, you had some knowledge of mechanics, of driving, when and how to manually engage the locking hubs, carried 'survival' hardware in the back.  Now it's just turn the key and drive, and the truck figures it all out.  Used to carry bottled water.  Anyone is now a 'truck driver'.

That all said.....  I'm looking forward to owning an all-electric truck when the time is right.  All the bells and whistles just happen to come with it.


----------



## Kyle

Sneakers said:


> Speedo and gas gauge is all I need.



You drive around in that thing in a Speedo?


----------



## Sneakers

Kyle said:


> You drive around in that thing in a Speedo?


I like the open air feeling.....


----------



## stgislander

Kyle said:


> You drive around in that thing in a Speedo?


----------



## Grumpy

Kyle said:


> You drive around in that thing in a Speedo?


Don't look Ethel!!


----------



## glhs837

Sneakers said:


> All that is nice, but I'm still a 'drive by the seat of my pants' driver.  One of the reasons I like the Slingshot, it's a frame with a motor and some plastic shell.  Speedo and gas gauge is all I need.
> 
> Used to be if you had a truck, you had some knowledge of mechanics, of driving, when and how to manually engage the locking hubs, carried 'survival' hardware in the back.  Now it's just turn the key and drive, and the truck figures it all out.  Used to carry bottled water.  Anyone is now a 'truck driver'.
> 
> That all said.....  I'm looking forward to owning an all-electric truck when the time is right.  All the bells and whistles just happen to come with it.



Thats why I'm keeping at least one of the late 90s BMW 3 series convertibles around, all analog, manual trans. Very much seat of the pants. But vehicles the wifes drives, safety systems everywhere. Not that she's unsafe, but her training for SHTF moments isnt awesome.


----------



## glhs837

Sneakers said:


> I like the open air feeling.....



Which is fine til a cicada finds its way in.... POW, right in the "kisser". Took one to the faceshield right after moving down in 93, thought someone had thrown a rock at me


----------



## Kyle

If I was gonna keep something for SHTF it would be something pre-1974.


----------



## glhs837

Kyle said:


> If I was gonna keep something for SHTF it would be something pre-1974.



I mean traffic SHTF. Those aw crap moments when you lock panic down and keep driving til theres no crash after  all or all motion has ceased, or just jam down on the brake, lock your arms straight ahead and wait for the crash to be over.


----------



## Kyle

For that... Early 70s cadillac fleetwood.

It'll plow through everything short of a dumptruck.


----------



## GURPS

Any of the Luxo Boats 

like a 2 and half ton Chrysler Imperial


----------



## Grumpy

Kyle said:


> For that... Early 70s cadillac fleetwood.
> 
> It'll plow through everything short of a dumptruck.


Or this....Saw one last weekend, I had forgotten how huge they were


----------



## glhs837

Kyle said:


> For that... Early 70s cadillac fleetwood.
> 
> It'll plow through everything short of a dumptruck.



Well, of course it will, you have no choice since steering was like using a rudder and braking was notional  But, its not really a good choice upon impact. Crumple zones nor airbags not a thing. There's a reason traffic deaths have continually declined and it isnt that people drive better


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Kyle said:


> Ford F-150 Lightning pre-orders hit 100K
> The full-size, all-electric pickup truck starts at $39,974 and comes with standard all-wheel drive and a range of 230 miles per charge
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ford F-150 Lightning pre-orders hit 100K
> 
> 
> Ford's reservations for the all-electric pickup, which will officially open this fall, only require a $100 refundable deposit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxbusiness.com


That range is severely understated also, they list the range assuming you are towing.


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> That range is severely understated also, they list the range assuming you are towing.



I had read that that range was with a 1,000lb payload, not towing, but I cant find anything definitive showing that.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> I had read that that range was with a 1,000lb payload, not towing, but I cant find anything definitive showing that.


That may have been what I read payload. It was some reviewer getting 400mi from the 300 mi model or something like that.


----------



## AnthonyJames

Grumpy said:


> Or this....Saw one last weekend, I had forgotten how huge they were
> View attachment 157503


In the first half of 1979 I was 18 years old and worked in a gas station, I drove a 1975 Pontiac Catalina. One of the regular customers came in driving a brand new Lincoln Mach VI and remarked about how long it was. With his permission of course, I pulled my Catalina along side his Mach VI and the Catalina was a foot longer. With the bench seat in the front I could fit eight people in it easily.


----------



## Sneakers

I had a Pontiac Catalina.  Huge motor 4BBL 4-speed automatic.  I called it a boat, because if you quickly rocked the steering wheel side to side, the car would rock side-to-side without veering from it's forward track.  Felt just like a boat in choppy water.


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> That may have been what I read payload. It was some reviewer getting 400mi from the 300 mi model or something like that.



Ah, here we go. Blogger asked a Ford guy who told him this...... If true, I suspect that 1,000lbs is supposed to represent a four man crew of workers and some power tools like a table saw, chop saw, small compressor, battery charger for common worksite tools. Would make sense if you are pitching this thing a a solid work truck that you expect it to get rated range in normal worksite usage. 









						The Ford F-150 Lightning's Range Could Be a Lot Better Than We Think: Report
					

It could be sandbagging, literally.




					www.thedrive.com
				





 and he saw something on the display. Dont know that I believe a thing seen on the prototypes display carry's over. Might, might not, any more than I think the fact that the CT prototypes display of 600 









						Tesla Cybertruck Could Have Over 600 Miles Of Range
					

The Tesla Cybertruck debuted back in November 2019, but the final production version won't go on sale until 2022. Elon Musk has teased that the Cybertruck's polarizing design will be changed when the production version rolls out, and now patent filings suggest the electric truck will have a...




					carbuzz.com


----------



## PeoplesElbow

The electric mustang is ugly IMHO, but so are any Tesla's except the model S. It sure did sell good though so far. 









						Ford Mustang Milestone Nobody Saw Coming
					

In an unexpected move the Mustang Mach-E EV has surpassed the gas-powered Mustang in sales, less than a year into production. Also, it is the number one-selling vehicle in Norway while in the US the conventional Mustang sells three-to-one over the Mach E.




					www.motorbiscuit.com


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> The electric mustang is ugly IMHO, but so are any Tesla's except the model S. It sure did sell good though so far.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ford Mustang Milestone Nobody Saw Coming
> 
> 
> In an unexpected move the Mustang Mach-E EV has surpassed the gas-powered Mustang in sales, less than a year into production. Also, it is the number one-selling vehicle in Norway while in the US the conventional Mustang sells three-to-one over the Mach E.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.motorbiscuit.com



I agree, the S is a great looking car, the 3 and Y, acceptable, but not crazy good looking. CT to me isnt conventionally attractive, but functionally so.  Has to look that way. But the E-stang, well, it's lost in a sea of similarly styled small CUVs.


----------



## glhs837

Didnt know Munro was tearing into the E-stang..... 



Ignore the bit of fun dram at the beginning, after that it standard engineering analysis.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> I agree, the S is a great looking car, the 3 and Y, acceptable, but not crazy good looking. CT to me isnt conventionally attractive, but functionally so.  Has to look that way. But the E-stang, well, it's lost in a sea of similarly styled small CUVs.


I mostly like the look of the cyber truck. One thing that bothers me is the angled bed sides as I use mine often as a work surface, Honda did this with the first gen Ridgeline.


----------



## Clem72

PeoplesElbow said:


> I hope Tesla doesn't trust China, they have shown they are all in to make them fail in favor of their home grown EVs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chinese Media: Sorry For Spreading Tesla Brake Failure Rumors
> 
> 
> Tesla has had its share of problems over the years, but it's also up against a barrage of media reports from anonymous sources, and they're missing key details.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> insideevs.com



I feel like I replied to this before, maybe in another threat.  Tesla already open sources their designs. China is free to make a copy, today, and not partner with Tesla whatsoever.  So whether it's name recognition (like Apple) or that they simply make a the best product for the best price, no one seems to be able to compete at this time despite already having free access to Tesla's secret sauce.


----------



## Clem72

PeoplesElbow said:


> That range is severely understated also, they list the range assuming you are towing.



I would be surprised. I heard it was a 60KW battery, and I know for a fact that no F-150 is more aerodynamic than a model 3, so unless they stay under 45mph or that range includes towing a generator that's plugged into the truck, I don't see it.

I do like that their house charger has an auto-failover (I think they said 9KW) inverter.  If the truck is popular enough maybe I could get an electric Escape or Edge with a similar capability in a couple of years.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Clem72 said:


> I would be surprised. I heard it was a 60KW battery, and I know for a fact that no F-150 is more aerodynamic than a model 3, so unless they stay under 45mph or that range includes towing a generator that's plugged into the truck, I don't see it.
> 
> I do like that their house charger has an auto-failover (I think they said 9KW) inverter.  If the truck is popular enough maybe I could get an electric Escape or Edge with a similar capability in a couple of years.


The batteries are going to be 125 and 170 kWh.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Clem72 said:


> I feel like I replied to this before, maybe in another threat.  Tesla already open sources their designs. China is free to make a copy, today, and not partner with Tesla whatsoever.  So whether it's name recognition (like Apple) or that they simply make a the best product for the best price, no one seems to be able to compete at this time despite already having free access to Tesla's secret sauce.


I'm not referring to patent infringement, I'd say that's the least of any US companies worries with assets in China.


----------



## Clem72

PeoplesElbow said:


> The batteries are going to be 125 and 170 kWh.



Ah, then I agree they may be conservative (as long as you stay under 70).  Keep in mind that 125kwh is less than the equivalent of 3.5 gallons of gasoline, so if they are claiming 230 mile range, then they are estimating their vehicle has roughly 65mpg equivalent, which is much less than the ~100 claimed by most electric vehicles. Reasonable for a heavier truck.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Clem72 said:


> Ah, then I agree they may be conservative (as long as you stay under 70).  Keep in mind that 125kwh is less than the equivalent of 3.5 gallons of gasoline, so if they are claiming 230 mile range, then they are estimating their vehicle has roughly 65mpg equivalent, which is much less than the ~100 claimed by most electric vehicles. Reasonable for a heavier truck.


Although not a BEV, the Toyota RAV4 PHEV has a bit smaller than a 20kWh battery and claims a battery range of 40 miles. The normal hybrid MPG is about 40, but an ICE only would have a combined MPG of about 25-30.  I have a regular Hybrid, its battery pack is only 1.6 KWh. 

I am hoping for a PHEV truck with an electric only range of 30-40 miles. Although the Lightning is very tempting for an off the grid cabin with solar capability, portable powerwall.


----------



## glhs837

How big is the Gigafactory in Austin? Google Maps just updated the sat imagery. You can see what the completed perimeter will be. This is two huge factories with a center roadway between them, but even the roadway will be roofed and conditioned, making the whole thing 7 million feet under roof. And this is only one building, they have a lot more property bought and being worked. Pull up the link so you can zoom down to vehicle level. And the whole thing is three tall stories tall. 














						Austin · Texas
					

Texas




					www.google.com


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> I mostly like the look of the cyber truck. One thing that bothers me is the angled bed sides as I use mine often as a work surface, Honda did this with the first gen Ridgeline.




I have to ask how tall are they and how tall are you? Me I'm 68 in tall and from what I see an f-150s bed rail is 56 or 57 in tall. I mean I suppose I could use something shoulder height for a work platform but that seems pretty awkward compared to the tailgate


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> I have to ask how tall are they and how tall are you? Me I'm 68 in tall and from what I see an f-150s bed rail is 56 or 57 in tall. I mean I suppose I could use something shoulder height for a work platform but that seems pretty awkward compared to the tailgate


I'm 77" tall, I use to put 2xs and a piece of plywood across my ranger's bed all the time and put plants, hardwood that I planed, etc using it as a temporary table/shelf. When I first saw the Ridgeline my only thought was WTF. Now I have a Tacoma with a rigid bed cover that I use, although I dont beat it around like I did with the plywood on the ranger.


----------



## RoseRed

Dayum.  I'm 62 inches.


----------



## Sneakers

PeoplesElbow said:


> I'm 77" tall, I use to put 2xs and a piece of plywood across my ranger's bed all the time and put plants, hardwood that I planed, etc using it as a temporary table/shelf. When I first saw the Ridgeline my only thought was WTF. Now I have a Tacoma with a rigid bed cover that I use, although I dont beat it around like I did with the plywood on the ranger.


My GMC has slots on each side of the bed that take a 2x.  A 2x8 will raise it up enough to clear the wheel wells and you can slide a full 4'x8' in on top of them to create a flat shelf.  With the spray-in liner, I get pretty aggressive about tossing stuff in there and not worrying about it.


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> I'm 77" tall, I use to put 2xs and a piece of plywood across my ranger's bed all the time and put plants, hardwood that I planed, etc using it as a temporary table/shelf. When I first saw the Ridgeline my only thought was WTF. Now I have a Tacoma with a rigid bed cover that I use, although I dont beat it around like I did with the plywood on the ranger.



Ah, tall guy, short rails. Yeah, even when I had a Ranger, my short ass didn't use the side rails for work. The full size trucks the CT competes with all have pretty tall rails.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> Ah, tall guy, short rails. Yeah, even when I had a Ranger, my short ass didn't use the side rails for work. The full size trucks the CT competes with all have pretty tall rails.


I even backed it up to my house and used it as a scaffold when painting, nice sturdy and free.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

This is what I think will be the biggest challenge to electric cars, among the non engineering geek crowd that is. 



			https://www.yahoo.com/news/1-5-electric-vehicle-owners-164149467.html


----------



## RoseRed

PeoplesElbow said:


> This is what I think will be the biggest challenge to electric cars, among the non engineering geek crowd that is.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/1-5-electric-vehicle-owners-164149467.html


A friend in CA posted this yesterday:
Freaking Hybrid car decided it wanted to have problems when it was 109*. I was taking xxx to the mall to get his wallet that he lost but someone turned in and it started giving the errors. Have to be towed now, which I don’t know when that will happen, to CarMax to have it checked out. Ugh!! I guess it could’ve happened when I was taking xxx to Sac for her arm appt tomorrow.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

RoseRed said:


> A friend in CA posted this yesterday:
> Freaking Hybrid car decided it wanted to have problems when it was 109*. I was taking xxx to the mall to get his wallet that he lost but someone turned in and it started giving the errors. Have to be towed now, which I don’t know when that will happen, to CarMax to have it checked out. Ugh!! I guess it could’ve happened when I was taking xxx to Sac for her arm appt tomorrow.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 157655


What kind of car is that? Doesnt look like a Toyota.

I dont think women will want to bother with plugging a car in every night, you're a woman what would you think about having to plug your car in every night?


----------



## RoseRed

PeoplesElbow said:


> What kind of car is that? Doesnt look like a Toyota.
> 
> I dont think women will want to bother with plugging a car in every night, you're a woman what would you think about having to plug your car in every night?


I have no idea what kind of car it is.  

And no, I don't want to bother having to plug in my car at _anytime_.


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> This is what I think will be the biggest challenge to electric cars, among the non engineering geek crowd that is.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/1-5-electric-vehicle-owners-164149467.html



Keeping 80% of converts to a new technology, I call that pretty good. Study also showed almost all (70% home and slighty less office) of those who switched lacked a level 2 charger at home or work. Id say you are dropping the idiots who couldn't be bothered to do the research and find out that charging off a 110 outlet is crazy slow and inconvenient. I would never recommend those people to buy one because its not workable. But if you have that access, it becomes really simple. And unless you have an abnormally long commute or other driving, you dont need to plug in every night. 

If you have 300 miles of range, and your daily driving is 50 miles, you dont have to plug in every night. And unless you have it easy like my wife, who has GLHS lifetime subscription to a refilling service, you are still plugging your gas car in, only you need to go someplace and deal with people to "charge". With handles everyone else is wiping the booger pickers on. Of course, every install will be different, but here in MD they even subsidize the installation of a home charger. Dont agree with that, but it's there. 

Lastly, no idea what that is, sort of Toyotas, but I cant find a dash to match. 109 degrees, 94,000 miles. Says Battery Management System. If that's an older hybrid, older BMS's not awesome, less so depending on brand.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> Keeping 80% of converts to a new technology, I call that pretty good. Study also showed almost all (70% home and slighty less office) of those who switched lacked a level 2 charger at home or work. Id say you are dropping the idiots who couldn't be bothered to do the research and find out that charging off a 110 outlet is crazy slow and inconvenient. I would never recommend those people to buy one because its not workable. But if you have that access, it becomes really simple. And unless you have an abnormally long commute or other driving, you dont need to plug in every night.
> 
> If you have 300 miles of range, and your daily driving is 50 miles, you dont have to plug in every night. And unless you have it easy like my wife, who has GLHS lifetime subscription to a refilling service, you are still plugging your gas car in, only you need to go someplace and deal with people to "charge". With handles everyone else is wiping the booger pickers on. Of course, every install will be different, but here in MD they even subsidize the installation of a home charger. Dont agree with that, but it's there.
> 
> Lastly, no idea what that is, sort of Toyotas, but I cant find a dash to match. 109 degrees, 94,000 miles. Says Battery Management System. If that's an older hybrid, older BMS's not awesome, less so depending on brand.


Even the early Priuses were work horses, quite a few with over a million miles. My guess is it's a Nissan, pretty sure that isn't a Ford dash either.

Toyota recently had a problem with the fuel tank sensor that made people think their gas tank had less gas in it than it really did. The online community was certain the tank just wouldn't take fuel and they were raising holy hell over the Distance to Empty number only reading 400 miles after filling up because they claim they bought it for a 600 mile range. There were people filing suits having Toyota buy back their vehicles etc. All because the car didn't think it had as much gas in it as it really did. People even proved it was really ok by driving over 100 miles after the car said it was empty. There were people jacking up one side of the car trying to fill up etc.

I just don't have faith in people putting up with charging a vehicle or having only a 300 mile range after seeing stuff like that.

Fifteen years from now I wager the PHEV is the most popular between HEV, BEV, and PHEV.


----------



## Merlin99

PeoplesElbow said:


> What kind of car is that? Doesnt look like a Toyota.
> 
> I dont think women will want to bother with plugging a car in every night, you're a woman what would you think about having to plug your car in every night?


Pretty sure it’s a Kia Optima, about 10 years old.


----------



## glhs837

Merlin99 said:


> Pretty sure it’s a Kia Optima, about 10 years old.



The one brand I didnt even search, but yeah, not one I would trust with what needs highly advanced tech. Not ten years ago. Things have come a long way for all makers in the last ten years though. 




PeoplesElbow said:


> Even the early Priuses were work horses, quite a few with over a million miles. My guess is it's a Nissan, pretty sure that isn't a Ford dash either.
> 
> Toyota recently had* a problem* with the *fuel tank sensor *that made people think their gas tank had less gas in it than it really did. . There were people jacking up one side of the car trying to fill up etc.
> 
> *I just don't have faith in people putting up with charging a vehicle or having only a 300 mile range after seeing stuff like that.*
> 
> Fifteen years from now I wager the PHEV is the most popular between HEV, BEV, and PHEV.



I'm a bit confused, you describe a hybrid having problems with its fuel system, which a BEV doesnt have, then say that people wont put up with a 300 mile range with problems like that? I've mentioned this before, that BEVs do away with all those gas engines parts like fuel sensors, and injectors, and filters, and pumps, both oil and fuel. Thats one of the draws. We'll see as more folks get exposed to BEVs, good ones, not the Leaf, and not even the Bolt, which isnt bad, but isnt great either.

I just dont see slipping a cable into the port a few days a week as being that big a deal compared to going to a gas station. I mean, I'll always have at least one or two gas cars around, love my manuals, but for the majority of our driving, a BEV simplifies a lot of stuff.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> The one brand I didnt even search, but yeah, not one I would trust with what needs highly advanced tech. Not ten years ago. Things have come a long way for all makers in the last ten years though.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm a bit confused, you describe a hybrid having problems with its fuel system, which a BEV doesnt have, then say that people wont put up with a 300 mile range with problems like that? I've mentioned this before, that BEVs do away with all those gas engines parts like fuel sensors, and injectors, and filters, and pumps, both oil and fuel. Thats one of the draws. We'll see as more folks get exposed to BEVs, good ones, not the Leaf, and not even the Bolt, which isnt bad, but isnt great either.
> 
> I just dont see slipping a cable into the port a few days a week as being that big a deal compared to going to a gas station. I mean, I'll always have at least one or two gas cars around, love my manuals, but for the majority of our driving, a BEV simplifies a lot of stuff.


One model had a small percentage with a fuel tank sensor issue and it caused a large rukus. There was really nothing wrong other than the gauge didn't read right. Every 80s and 90s model GM I ever owned had an inaccurate fuel gage 

I don't think plugging in is a big deal either, but as a whole people are stupid and lazy and range anxiety is a real thing.  Like I said earlier I think I would buy a PHEV fullsize truck.

PHEVs can do most people's commutes on battery only and don't need nearly the amount batteries.

I also don't think our grid can support anything past a 20% adoption rate of BEV or PHEV vehicles.  Is CA still having rolling brownouts? Air conditioning and car charging is the first things they will want to control.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Merlin99 said:


> Pretty sure it’s a Kia Optima, about 10 years old.


Lol Kia, I remember a promotion a dealer in SC had buy one get one free.


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> One model had a small percentage with a fuel tank sensor issue and *.it caused a large rukus *There was really nothing wrong other than the gauge didn't read right. Every 80s and 90s model GM I ever owned had an inaccurate fuel gage
> 
> I don't think plugging in is a big deal either, but as a whole people are stupid and lazy and range anxiety is a real thing.  Like I said earlier I think I would buy a PHEV fullsize truck.
> 
> PHEVs can do most people's commutes on battery only and don't need nearly the amount batteries.
> 
> I also don't think our grid can support anything past a 20% adoption rate of BEV or PHEV vehicles.  Is CA still having rolling brownouts? Air conditioning and car charging is the first things they will want to control.




Isnt that the point though, a large ruckus without real problems causing folks to take irrational action? Because people are lazy and stupid, and cant bother to research. And I think by the time we get towards 20, the grid will have improved, and so forth. Just like gas stations, the utilities will meet the demand. CAs brownouts have nothing to do with EVs, its about stupid people voting to cut off thier electrical nose to spite their faces. 

As grid storage rolls out to load level, the grids will be better placed to meet off peak demand from EVs. Me, I'n done with engines as my main means of transport, I'll save gas vehicles for recreation. And that doesn't work for some folks, I know, but it doesn't need to. My longest tows in the last five years have been one trip to bring a U-haul with the daughters stuff from Charleston SC to Richmond, then a year later back to here. Two trip to tow E36 BMW convertibles, one to fetch the R1200RT from near Philly, and a ton of local towing of the small utkitiy trailer.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> Isnt that the point though, a large ruckus without real problems causing folks to take irrational action? Because people are lazy and stupid, and cant bother to research.


That has killed products and entire companies. People will base decisions off one single experience.

While the california brownouts have nothing to do with EVs it will sure as hell influence people the first time they want to go to the mall and find out their car isnt charged.

My arguement isnt about what's better, it's about the psychology of acceptance. Hell I just made a 60% return on Fisker in less than a month. 

Did you ever read Sam's thoughts on streaming TV, I thought it was completely irrational to pay that much just to want to flip channels the same way we have for 40 years.


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> That has killed products and entire companies. People will base decisions off one single experience.
> 
> While the california brownouts have nothing to do with EVs it will sure as hell influence people the first time they want to go to the mall and find out their car isnt charged.
> 
> My arguement isnt about what's better, it's about the psychology of acceptance. Hell I just made a 60% return on Fisker in less than a month.
> 
> Did you ever read Sam's thoughts on streaming TV, I thought it was completely irrational to pay that much just to want to flip channels the same way we have for 40 years.



I get it, but I don't think CAs experience will affect opinions too much outside of there. And my point is that the psychology will shift with greater exposure. As more people who have bad opinions get taken for rides by people who do, and that number grows because one person that owns one knows many people who don't, the ideas that people have from other sources will have less weight. Have a buddy, self described caveman, he went with for an hour long test ride in a Model 3. He's not going to rush out to buy one, but his tune about them sure changed, from a derisive "deet doot, beep" he reserves for what he views as technology that's not needed, to "Man, what a friken rocketship"  As people share thier own stories to friends and neighbors, that's when the attitude changes. Almost 300,000 people bought Teslas in the US in 2020. Those people will show maybe a million or more people their experience directly, and even more indirectly. I'm betting on word of mouth to shift attitudes. Nobody will ever convince JeffZ28, however.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> I get it, but I don't think CAs experience will affect opinions too much outside of there. And my point is that the psychology will shift with greater exposure. As more people who have bad opinions get taken for rides by people who do, and that number grows because one person that owns one knows many people who don't, the ideas that people have from other sources will have less weight. Have a buddy, self described caveman, he went with for an hour long test ride in a Model 3. He's not going to rush out to buy one, but his tune about them sure changed, from a derisive "deet doot, beep" he reserves for what he views as technology that's not needed, to "Man, what a friken rocketship"  As people share thier own stories to friends and neighbors, that's when the attitude changes. Almost 300,000 people bought Teslas in the US in 2020. Those people will show maybe a million or more people their experience directly, and even more indirectly. I'm betting on word of mouth to shift attitudes. Nobody will ever convince JeffZ28, however.


I'm interested how the used market will work.  My dad had an 80 mile commute to work, all interstate, but he never paid more than 4k for a car, I dont think a single one was under 10 years old. Personally I wouldn't even buy a used hybrid, but that's me.


----------



## Sneakers

PeoplesElbow said:


> Personally I wouldn't even buy a used hybrid, but that's me.


I probably wouldn't either, based on the age/usage of the battery pac.  If it had to be replaced, not much difference in cost if the vehicle was 5 y/o or 20 y/o, and not sure how a used warranty (assuming a used dealer, not private) might cover it.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Sneakers said:


> I probably wouldn't either, based on the age/usage of the battery pac.  If it had to be replaced, not much difference in cost if the vehicle was 5 y/o or 20 y/o, and not sure how a used warranty (assuming a used dealer, not private) might cover it.


I guess the one good thing about a regular hybrid battery is that it's pretty small and not that much to replace (comparatively).


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> I'm interested how the used market will work.  My dad had an 80 mile commute to work, all interstate, but he never paid more than 4k for a car, I dont think a single one was under 10 years old. Personally I wouldn't even buy a used hybrid, but that's me.



I would buy a used Tesla, but not until the later generations drop down in price. Up to 2015 not packing tech that's good enough for me. And I want the newest gen batteries. Alsways going to be newer and better, but at least the Model 3 or newer, since they have a 300k design life.


----------



## glhs837

Sneakers said:


> I probably wouldn't either, based on the age/usage of the battery pac.  If it had to be replaced, not much difference in cost if the vehicle was 5 y/o or 20 y/o, and not sure how a used warranty (assuming a used dealer, not private) might cover it.



So, interestingly, one Tesla battery repair shop has opened, and I expect more will follow. Tesla warranty (transferrable) goes out to eight years, or 100K or better. 


Model S
Model X8 years or 150,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.Model 3 Standard Range8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.Model 3 Long Range
Model 3 Performance
Model Y Long Range
Model Y Performance8 years or 120,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.


----------



## Sneakers

glhs837 said:


> So, interestingly, one Tesla battery repair shop has opened, and I expect more will follow. Tesla warranty (transferrable) goes out to eight years, or 100K or better.
> 
> 
> Model S
> Model X8 years or 150,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.Model 3 Standard Range8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.Model 3 Long Range
> Model 3 Performance
> Model Y Long Range
> Model Y Performance8 years or 120,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.


That makes a used Tesla a lot more attractive.  If the other vendors follow suit, not so bad, TBD.  Then it's like buying any used car... brakes, frame, overall body condition, etc...  A brushless electric motor should be good almost forever.


----------



## Clem72

PeoplesElbow said:


> Lol Kia, I remember a promotion a dealer in SC had buy one get one free.



Me to, was for the Rio around 2003/2004.

That said, since 2016 they have been top 1 or 2 spots on the various JD power awards, usually swapping places back and forth with Hyundai (same company).  This includes this year https://www.jdpower.com/cars/ratings

I was very interested in the electric Kia Niro, but the dealer in waldorf says he won't sell the EV models because he doesn't want to upgrade his service center.

Now with the Kia EV6 I may have to take a long drive to test one out.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Clem72 said:


> Me to, was for the Rio around 2003/2004.
> 
> That said, since 2016 they have been top 1 or 2 spots on the various JD power awards, usually swapping places back and forth with Hyundai (same company).  This includes this year https://www.jdpower.com/cars/ratings
> 
> I was very interested in the electric Kia Niro, but the dealer in waldorf says he won't sell the EV models because he doesn't want to upgrade his service center.
> 
> Now with the Kia EV6 I may have to take a long drive to test one out.


Wonder what upgrades would have to be made.

Not all that confident in JD Power awards co sidering how many GM vehicles won duRing their worst years,


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> Wonder what upgrades would have to be made.
> 
> Not all that confident in JD Power awards co sidering how many GM vehicles won duRing their worst years,





So, the JD Power equates customer complaints, no matter how silly, with quality. Dont like how the steering in your new Corvette feels because you came from a 1978 Lincoln Marquis De Sade? Thats an "initial quality" hit, even though the vehicle is operating as designed.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> So, the JD Power equates customer complaints, no matter how silly, with quality. Dont like how the steering in your new Corvette feels because you came from a 1978 Lincoln Marquis De Sade? Thats an "initial quality" hit, even though the vehicle is operating as designed.


Yep, total horse crap. 

An engine failure counts the same as a faulty cupholder.

This is one of my favorite videos


----------



## Clem72

PeoplesElbow said:


> Wonder what upgrades would have to be made.
> 
> Not all that confident in JD Power awards co sidering how many GM vehicles won duRing their worst years,




Okay, well check whatever publication you like then. Car and Driver gave the KIA Telluride their pick for best full sized SUV  as part of their top ten cars of 2021, and KIA is all over their editor's choice cars for 2021 (and previous years).
https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a35536605/2021-editors-choice/

I don't actually own a Kia, so i'm not fanboy'ing for them, just putting it out there that they seem to be a quality product these days.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Stuff like this makes absolutely no sense, demonstrates hurdles in the way.









						Tesla Model Y taxi fleet successfully blocked by NY commission
					

The New York Taxi and Limousine Commission’s (TLC) efforts to block the deployment of 50 Tesla Model Y taxis from electric transit startup Revel were successful. The decision was finalized in a meeting on Tuesday, where the NY TLC voted to stop issuing new for-hire licenses for electric cars...




					www.teslarati.com


----------



## jrt_ms1995

RoseRed said:


> Dayum.  I'm 62 inches.


Me, too! Oh, wait, you're talking height, aren't you?


----------



## RoseRed

jrt_ms1995 said:


> Me, too! Oh, wait, you're talking height, aren't you?


----------



## PeoplesElbow

jrt_ms1995 said:


> Me, too! Oh, wait, you're talking height, aren't you?


Pretty sure she isn't talking waist size.


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> Stuff like this makes absolutely no sense, demonstrates hurdles in the way.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tesla Model Y taxi fleet successfully blocked by NY commission
> 
> 
> The New York Taxi and Limousine Commission’s (TLC) efforts to block the deployment of 50 Tesla Model Y taxis from electric transit startup Revel were successful. The decision was finalized in a meeting on Tuesday, where the NY TLC voted to stop issuing new for-hire licenses for electric cars...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.teslarati.com



Friken insane, isnt it. But you know, hurdles are for jumping.


----------



## RoseRed

PeoplesElbow said:


> Pretty sure she isn't talking waist size.


*******.


----------



## GURPS

Hmm Soy on the wiring instead of Plastic

Not such a smart idea .... To Be Fair .... Tesla isn't the only Automaker



*Rodents chow down on Teslas, causing thousands in damage*


Automakers have been getting slammed for years with complaints of their allegedly rat-friendly soy-based wiring. And like Tesla, they have all refused to cover the damage, claiming that rats chewing on car innards is the result of nature and therefore not their problem.

“It is a long-established fact that rodents are drawn to chew on electrical wiring in homes, cars or anywhere else they may choose to nest,” Honda told the Chicago Sun-Times in June about an Illinois man’s efforts to bring a class-action case against it.

Tesla so far only appears to be unique in having escaped legal action tied to its use of soy materials. But that could change as complaints about rats in Teslas appear to rise along with the popularity of the brand, now valued at $632 billion.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Ask @SailorGirl how that soy based wire insulation works.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Yikes









						Tesla’s $16,000 Quote for a $700 Fix Is Why Right to Repair Matters
					

This is what people are fighting for.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## glhs837

Up here at Teeter, about 30 or more of them gathered by the Superchargers, hanging out, answering question for the curious, of which I've seen 8-10 approach the group while I wait for someone to get seen at the urgent care. Even saw a couple hop in a Model Y for a test ride.


----------



## RoseRed

glhs837 said:


> Up here at Teeter, about 30 or more of them gathered by the Superchargers, hanging out, answering question for the curious, of which I've seen 8-10 approach the group while I wait for someone to get seen at the urgent care. Even saw a couple hop in a Model Y for a test ride.


Tesla Supercharger Now Operational At Harris Teeter; Sparking A Surge In SOMD | thebaynet.com | TheBayNet.com | Articles


----------



## stgislander

RoseRed said:


> Tesla Supercharger Now Operational At Harris Teeter; Sparking A Surge In SOMD | thebaynet.com | TheBayNet.com | Articles


Hey look.  Our shadow Delegate made an appearance.


----------



## glhs837

Where my metals expert at?

This looks like after developing the alloy they used for the Model Ys rear "mega casting" they didnt stop, but kept on looking for other alloys, ones with desirable characteristics depending on specific application..... Maybe the Models larger front casting, being larger and also part of the front crumple zone, needed to differ? Also, we know the Cybertruck will use megacastings both front and rear, which I'm sure will be subjected to different/larger loads than the model Y ever will. 









						Tesla’s aluminum alloys patent hints at ultra-tough EVs that are cheaper to produce
					

It is widely known that Tesla constantly innovates, from the software of its cars to the chemistry of the batteries that power them. And if a newly published patent application is any indication, it appears that Tesla’s innovations actually go all the way down to the metals used to build its...




					www.teslarati.com
				






> _“In one embodiment, the alloy comprises a yield strength of at least about 130 MPa and a bend angle of at least about 20° at a 3 mm section thickness when as-cast and without further processing. In one embodiment, the aluminum alloys comprise vanadium to provide many of these enhancements. In another embodiment, the aluminum alloy has a specific weight ratio of copper to magnesium to provide many of these enhancements of an alloy with the desired features. In one embodiment, the aluminum alloy has a weight ratio of Cu:Mg of about 4:1 to about 1: 1. In one embodiment, the aluminum alloy has a weight ratio of Cu:Mg of about 4: 1 to about 2: 1.
> 
> “As mentioned below, aluminum alloys with these compositions were found to have high yield strength and high ductility compared to available aluminum alloys. As mentioned below, the aluminum alloys are described herein by the weight percent (wt %) of the total elements and particles within the alloy, as well as specific properties of the alloys, it will be understood that the remaining composition of any alloy described herein is aluminum and incidental impurities.”_


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> Where my metals expert at?
> 
> This looks like after developing the alloy they used for the Model Ys rear "mega casting" they didnt stop, but kept on looking for other alloys, ones with desirable characteristics depending on specific application..... Maybe the Models larger front casting, being larger and also part of the front crumple zone, needed to differ? Also, we know the Cybertruck will use megacastings both front and rear, which I'm sure will be subjected to different/larger loads than the model Y ever will.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tesla’s aluminum alloys patent hints at ultra-tough EVs that are cheaper to produce
> 
> 
> It is widely known that Tesla constantly innovates, from the software of its cars to the chemistry of the batteries that power them. And if a newly published patent application is any indication, it appears that Tesla’s innovations actually go all the way down to the metals used to build its...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.teslarati.com


Not especially strong for AL, but probably on the upper end for die cast AL. 

Probably the most versatile alloy used in aerospace 




__





						6061 aluminum alloy - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




The strongest typically used is 7075 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/7075_aluminium_alloy

I am waiting on fiber impregnated epoxy resin chassis parts. The bed of my Tacoma is made out of some sort of epoxy based resin and its amazing.


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> Not especially strong for AL, but probably on the upper end for die cast AL.
> 
> Probably the most versatile alloy used in aerospace
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 6061 aluminum alloy - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The strongest typically used is 7075 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/7075_aluminium_alloy
> 
> I am waiting on fiber impregnated epoxy resin chassis parts. The bed of my Tacoma is made out of some sort of epoxy based resin and its amazing.


But can you make large like 150lb parts through HPDC that don't require any post casting treatment or finishing out of those alloys? I think the new machines are doing castings that big in 8,000 ton presses. 90 second cycle times.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> But can you make large like 150lb parts through HPDC that don't require any post casting treatment or finishing out of those alloys? I think the new machines are doing castings that big in 8,000 ton presses. 90 second cycle times.


The big advantage is speed of process and strong enough.

A Tesla that reaches the end of it's life should be more valuable than a standard car in recycle payout.


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> The big advantage is speed of process and strong enough.
> 
> A Tesla that reaches the end of it's life should be more valuable than a standard car in recycle payout.



Oh, certainly, the Cybertruck even more so, I suspect. More of that aluminum than any other, larger battery pack,, and all that stainless steel. Of course, then the question ends up being when end of life is. Cant really use the Model S/X, at least the older ones, as those battery packs are an older design. Model 3 and Y packs should be 300K or better, body supposed to be designed for 500K. And the new cells, once those are nailed down, should make for a 500K or better battery pack. With a life in stationary storage after that.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

I think what would change a lot of people's minds is make the packs easily swappable and you lease the pack so people don't worry about buying a $10k battery for an otherwise fine vehicle. Imagine exchanges like with propane tanks at highway rest stops, there is the quick refill many stick with gas for.


----------



## Sneakers

PeoplesElbow said:


> I think what would change a lot of people's minds is make the packs easily swappable and you lease the pack so people don't worry about buying a $10k battery for an otherwise fine vehicle. Imagine exchanges like with propane tanks at highway rest stops, there is the quick refill many stick with gas for.


To be honest, not sure why they didn't do that to start with.  Interchangeable packs make a lot of sense.


----------



## stgislander

PeoplesElbow said:


> I think what would change a lot of people's minds is make the packs easily swappable and you lease the pack so people don't worry about buying a $10k battery for an otherwise fine vehicle. Imagine exchanges like with propane tanks at highway rest stops, there is the quick refill many stick with gas for.


Now that sounds like a great idea.


----------



## glhs837

Sneakers said:


> To be honest, not sure why they didn't do that to start with.  Interchangeable packs make a lot of sense.



They did try that early on, but, at least here in America, folks really dont like the idea of the single most valuable part of their car being not theirs. And then you add in the staggering logistical nightmare of pack storage and movement, how many spare packs you keep where, and the square footage to store them, and the manpower for the stations, and the upkeep of the swapping machines, and I don't blame anyone for not pursuing that. 









						How Is This A Good Idea?: EV Battery Swapping
					

Swap this technological dead-end out for better batteries, improved superchargers and more universal EV charging standards




					spectrum.ieee.org


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> They did try that early on, but, at least here in America, folks really dont like the idea of the single most valuable part of their car being not theirs. And then you add in the staggering logistical nightmare of pack storage and movement, how many spare packs you keep where, and the square footage to store them, and the manpower for the stations, and the upkeep of the swapping machines, and I don't blame anyone for not pursuing that.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Is This A Good Idea?: EV Battery Swapping
> 
> 
> Swap this technological dead-end out for better batteries, improved superchargers and more universal EV charging standards
> 
> 
> 
> 
> spectrum.ieee.org


I think people would if the price of the car was lowered by that amount. 

Everything eventually is going to be a subscription eventually anyway. 

The most expensive part of the car already is not theirs ( the right to repair )


----------



## Kyle

Tesla Battery Fire Brought Under Control After Three Days Burning
					

A blaze at a massive Tesla battery site in Australia that started three days ago was brought under control on Monday, firefighters said.




					www.breitbart.com


----------



## RoseRed

Kyle said:


> Tesla Battery Fire Brought Under Control After Three Days Burning
> 
> 
> A blaze at a massive Tesla battery site in Australia that started three days ago was brought under control on Monday, firefighters said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.breitbart.com


I bet that is terrific for the environment.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

I keep seeing too many stories like this, once the traditional car companies catch up I can't see things going well. 









						My Tesla experience
					

Hi all.  I'm new and I'd like to share how I came to the RAV4 Prime platform.  I apologize for the long post.  My current daily driver is a Honda Accord and I was interested in purchasing a rav4 prime XSE with premium package earlier this year.  Nothing wrong with the Accord but wanted something...




					www.rav4world.com


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> I keep seeing too many stories like this, once the traditional car companies catch up I can't see things going well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> My Tesla experience
> 
> 
> Hi all.  I'm new and I'd like to share how I came to the RAV4 Prime platform.  I apologize for the long post.  My current daily driver is a Honda Accord and I was interested in purchasing a rav4 prime XSE with premium package earlier this year.  Nothing wrong with the Accord but wanted something...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rav4world.com



So, given that experience is common enough to lower sales, and the sales numbers and owner polls say differently, the questions are. 

1. Can Tesla improve the quality? 

2. Can the ICE Makers catch up before that happens? 

Regarding 1, I think once Austin come online, you will see that improve considerably. Shanghais quality is much better than Fremont, and Austin has learned things from both Shanghai and Berlin. As for the service experience, dont let anecdotal stories blind you to the other experiences that don't "make the news". Every maker has service issues. Anyone whos ever owned a car has had service issues. Asking a customer to take the car today and fix it later isnt just a Tesla thing. Our local Dodge dealer trucked a Jeep up here with the wrong options, betting we would take it anyway. Lat poll I saw said something over 95% of Tesla owners would do it again. 









						Almost every single one of the 5,000 Tesla Model 3 owners surveyed by Bloomberg said they would buy the car again
					

Ninety-nine percent of Tesla Model 3 owners surveyed by Bloomberg said they would recommend the vehicle to their family or friends.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




As for 2, the Mach E is the only one so far to even come close, and I think it will take a year or so to see if they will produce it in quantity and it holds up, and if the charging infrastructure catches up.

In Teslas favor, they have two brand new plants beginning production this year, and the Model Y is selling like hotcakes. That vehicles margins should be very hard to beat, given the lower cost of production allowed by those front and rear castings and the new structural battery packs. That seems to be the big problem the OEMS will face. They are aiming for the product Tesla is selling today, but by the time they come to market, Tesla will have already iterated those products to make them a better value. Will they still get market share? Sure, but with only a 2%-3% penetration's by EVs, there's market for everybody. 

I'm interested to see more about the Ultium cells. GMs been heavy on talk, low on details and I'm wondering if its a lot of adspeak, or they really did bring something new.


----------



## Kyle

Considering all the bitching about electronic waste now, what's it going to be like in 20 years when tens or hundreds of thousands of these behemoth battery packs are discarded?


----------



## GURPS

Recycle


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> So, given that experience is common enough to lower sales, and the sales numbers and owner polls say differently, the questions are.
> 
> 1. Can Tesla improve the quality?
> 
> 2. Can the ICE Makers catch up before that happens?
> 
> Regarding 1, I think once Austin come online, you will see that improve considerably. Shanghais quality is much better than Fremont, and Austin has learned things from both Shanghai and Berlin. As for the service experience, dont let anecdotal stories blind you to the other experiences that don't "make the news". Every maker has service issues. Anyone whos ever owned a car has had service issues. Asking a customer to take the car today and fix it later isnt just a Tesla thing. Our local Dodge dealer trucked a Jeep up here with the wrong options, betting we would take it anyway. Lat poll I saw said something over 95% of Tesla owners would do it again.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Almost every single one of the 5,000 Tesla Model 3 owners surveyed by Bloomberg said they would buy the car again
> 
> 
> Ninety-nine percent of Tesla Model 3 owners surveyed by Bloomberg said they would recommend the vehicle to their family or friends.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As for 2, the Mach E is the only one so far to even come close, and I think it will take a year or so to see if they will produce it in quantity and it holds up, and if the charging infrastructure catches up.
> 
> In Teslas favor, they have two brand new plants beginning production this year, and the Model Y is selling like hotcakes. That vehicles margins should be very hard to beat, given the lower cost of production allowed by those front and rear castings and the new structural battery packs. That seems to be the big problem the OEMS will face. They are aiming for the product Tesla is selling today, but by the time they come to market, Tesla will have already iterated those products to make them a better value. Will they still get market share? Sure, but with only a 2%-3% penetration's by EVs, there's market for everybody.
> 
> I'm interested to see more about the Ultium cells. GMs been heavy on talk, low on details and I'm wondering if its a lot of adspeak, or they really did bring something new.


You are talking US sales, if I'm not mistaken Nio outsells Tesla in China.

I wouldn't touch a Chrysler product with a 10ft pole, so I'm not sure that's a good comparison.

Well here is a story someone saying how good the service is at the same time saying their lower control arm broke while charging. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-service-sucks.179720/

Remember people not paying attention to their floor mats caused a big dip in sales for the Prius.

The current people that own Tesla's (early adopters) are fanboys or at the very least excited about owning one and less critical than a general consumer.


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> You are talking US sales, if I'm not mistaken Nio outsells Tesla in China.
> 
> I wouldn't touch a Chrysler product with a 10ft pole, so I'm not sure that's a good comparison.
> 
> Well here is a story someone saying how good the service is at the same time saying their lower control arm broke while charging. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-service-sucks.179720/
> 
> Remember people not paying attention to their floor mats caused a big dip in sales for the Prius.
> 
> The current people that own Tesla's (early adopters) are fanboys or at the very least excited about owning one and less critical than a general consumer.











						China: Plug-In Electric Car Sales Reach New Record In June 2021
					

Plug-in electric car sales surge in China to new record levels as multiple models are selling better than ever.




					insideevs.com
				




So, looking at this, there is one car crushing it in China..... looks like this.... and costs about 6K fully loaded. 






There's no debating the fact that dealerships service departments are not a source of joy for virtually anyone. And all dealers play games to get sales. 

And I think  we are leaving the early adopter crowd now, when you look around. Time will tell, of course.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

glhs837 said:


> There's no debating the fact that dealerships service departments are not a source of joy for virtually anyone. And all dealers play games to get sales.


Not at all,  but its better than waiting around for someone to show up from god knows where.  You can also take a non-Tesla to Joe Bobs garage and it will stay under warranty if they did the same maintenance.  That won't fly with Tesla.

The paint on that $6k Chinese car looks better than a few of the Model 3s I've seen close up.


----------



## Kyle

Everything I read shows recycling of those things at about 5% right now.

Even if it grows to 50, that's a lot of toxic metals that will end up in landfills or worse.


----------



## glhs837

PeoplesElbow said:


> Not at all,  but its better than waiting around for someone to show up from god knows where.  You can also take a non-Tesla to Joe Bobs garage and it will stay under warranty if they did the same maintenance.  That won't fly with Tesla.
> 
> The paint on that $6k Chinese car looks better than a few of the Model 3s I've seen close up.



Tesla just released repair data, so that should be changing. Paint, well, we'll see once Austin opens up. Both it and Germany are getting brand new paint systems from the best maker of such systems in the world.  




Kyle said:


> Everything I read shows recycling of those things at about 5% right now.
> 
> Even if it grows to 50, that's a lot of toxic metals that will end up in landfills or worse.



Most Tesla packs get snapped up for projects of some kind. Most of that data reflects things like Prii or Leaf's, which are not desirable packs. And there were never enough to make recycling worthwhile. But now that we are approaching millions, it becomes worthwhile and industries are spooling up accordingly.


----------



## Merlin99

I think if any of these EV’s ever start selling cheap enough they may get towed to a charger and brought home as a standby generator


----------



## glhs837

Merlin99 said:


> I think if any of these EV’s ever start selling cheap enough they may get towed to a charger and brought home as a standby generator



Tesla's can't be used that way. One thing the future Cybertruck owners are ticked about, espy since Ford announced this functionality for the Lightning F-150. But Ford doesn't sell home batteries, Tesla does.


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## RoseRed

Production of the Chevy Bolt electric vehicles has been halted after a massive recall brought on by a number of battery fires, multiple news outlets are reporting.
General Motors is waiting on new battery modules by LG that it can be confident are not defective, according to The Verge.
"We will not resume repairs or restart production until we are confident LG is producing defect free products for us," GM spokesman Daniel Flores said.








						GM Halts Production of Chevy Bolt
					

Production of the Chevy Bolt electric vehicles has been halted after a massive recall brought on by a number of battery fires, multiple news outlets are reporting. General Motors is waiting on new battery modules...




					www.newsmax.com


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## Kyle

RoseRed said:


> Production of the Chevy Bolt electric vehicles has been halted after a massive recall brought on by a number of battery fires, multiple news outlets are reporting.
> General Motors is waiting on new battery modules by LG that it can be confident are not defective, according to The Verge.
> "We will not resume repairs or restart production until we are confident LG is producing defect free products for us," GM spokesman Daniel Flores said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GM Halts Production of Chevy Bolt
> 
> 
> Production of the Chevy Bolt electric vehicles has been halted after a massive recall brought on by a number of battery fires, multiple news outlets are reporting. General Motors is waiting on new battery modules...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsmax.com


They're missing a marketing opportunity here. 

Rebrand it from the Chevy Bolt to the Chevy Car-B-Que!


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## glhs837

Kyle said:


> They're missing a marketing opportunity here.
> 
> Rebrand it from the Chevy Bolt to the Chevy Car-B-Que!


Electric cars are easy. Until you try to build them and sell them. Last I read Chevy was losing anywhere from 7 to 10,000 a car on the bolt. And that number has no connection to recall costs


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## Sneakers

LG is taking a big hit right now from different sources, all claiming bad manufacturing and absolving themselves for implementation.


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## Merlin99

glhs837 said:


> Electric cars are easy. Until you try to build them and sell them. Last I read Chevy was losing anywhere from 7 to 10,000 a car on the bolt. And that number has no connection to recall costs


I’m sure the feds are making sure it’s still profitable.


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## glhs837

Merlin99 said:


> I’m sure the feds are making sure it’s still profitable.


Nope, remember the incentive was consumer side, a tax credit. It lowered the price you paid by giving you a tax break. And GM, like Tesla, has sold over the 200,000 units that cap that incentive.


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## glhs837

So, Giga Berlin ready to go live, like Austin will for the Model Y in a couple three months. This pic shows all the stamped metal in the body of the car. Note the lack of any structural stuff. The entire bottom end is composed of the structural battery pack, which is the "floorpan" to which the seats and other interior things get mounted, and front and rear cast aluminum subframes. The less stamped metal you need, the fewer gargantuan stamping machines you need, and the fewer robots to weld all of that, and the fewer issues with alignment of things.


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## glhs837

Damn, look whos onboard. 





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




I'll certainly pay the difference on business trips out of pocket.


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