# Predicting Rouge Waves



## stgislander

The Grand Unified Theory of Rogue Waves
					

Rogue waves—enigmatic giants of the sea—were thought to be caused by two different mechanisms. But a new idea that borrows from the hinterlands of probability theory has the potential to predict them all.




					getpocket.com


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## UglyBear

Rouge wave?  Dang it, I thought this was about militant lipstick lesbians, with photos...


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## Gilligan

Neat stuff..if you are a marine engineer that loves statistics...

Saw this....I sure spent a lot of time in that testing facility over the years..  


> Next came physical waves. The mathematicians approached Miguel Onorato, a wave physicist at the University of Turin in Italy. He had spent the early 2000s recreating rogue waves in one of Europe’s largest wave experiments — *a nearly 270-meter-long flume in Norway* — where he showed that some outliers developed linearly, some nonlinearly, and some in both ways.


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## Gilligan

Bwa ha haa..there it is. I knew there had to be some reference(s) to the perpetual argument over how to accurately predict anything that exhibits any non-linear behaviors using methods based on the assumption of linearity. 



> Others find it less novel. Fedele says that it represents a rediscovery of results he published in 2007, in which he extended a statistical approach developed by the oceanographer Paolo Boccotti. *The authors of the recent research believe their work more fully encompasses nonlinear behavior. *



This is all part of what takes up most of the engaging and fascinating dinner conversation I used to make on a first date.  I still can't figger out why most of them ghosted me afterward.


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## Bonehead

I have experienced them on large ships they can be very nasty and kill you out of the blue especially the deck pukes. My engine room seldom got wet, sideways with a lot of hot pipes and such on occasion.


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## Gilligan

Bonehead said:


> I have experienced them on large ships they can be very nasty and kill you out of the blue especially the deck pukes. My engine room seldom got wet, sideways with a lot of hot pipes and such on occasion.



I was not on board when it happened, but one of my colleagues was. An experimental high-speed vessel, that was Navy crew but supported underway by us for the technical systems*,  was on a deployment to visit a bunch of NATO allies "over there" when they encountered a rogue wave. Don't recall where exactly...off the coast of France or Spain, I believe it was. Anyway, it was described by those on board as akin to falling off a cliff and then hitting a brick wall.

*inside joke: We came to the conclusion, after several deployments, that our rep's onboard support of technical systems consisted mostly of "satisfying the critical urges of soft personnel".  But I digress...


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