# Greek Gov Ready to 'Shave' Bank Accounts



## GURPS

*Greek banks prepare plan to raid deposits to avert collapse*


could this action ever come to the US 
... or would the FED just keep printing money
- and this disaster is only because the credit give to Greece has dried up


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## tommyjo

GURPS said:


> *Greek banks prepare plan to raid deposits to avert collapse*
> 
> 
> could this action ever come to the US
> ... or would the FED just keep printing money
> - and this disaster is only because the credit give to Greece has dried up



If you understood monetary systems, you would know that what is happening to Greece cannot happen here.

Had you been following this slow motion train wreck since it began 5+ years ago, you would know that Greece's default on loans was inevitable. Austerity does not, and never will, fix a badly damaged economy. Only growth will.

But you only know what the right wing propaganda internet sources tell you. You think the withdrawal of additional credit last weekend was the cause of Greece's problems? You don't understand and likely never will. Go back to reading Young Conservatives or Briebart...


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## Merlin99

tommyjo said:


> If you understood monetary systems, you would know that what is happening to Greece cannot happen here.
> 
> Had you been following this slow motion train wreck since it began 5+ years ago, you would know that Greece's default on loans was inevitable. Austerity does not, and never will, fix a badly damaged economy. Only growth will.
> 
> But you only know what the right wing propaganda internet sources tell you. You think the withdrawal of additional credit last weekend was the cause of Greece's problems? You don't understand and likely never will. Go back to reading Young Conservatives or Briebart...



In other words.
Blah blah blah, I have not a single clue as to what I'm talking about but I'll spew my venom anyways, blah blah blah

Crawl back under your rock.


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## littlelady

Merlin99 said:


> In other words.
> Blah blah blah, I have not a single clue as to what I'm talking about but I'll spew my venom anyways, blah blah blah
> 
> Crawl back under your rock.



  Why does TJ never offer any info as to why she disagrees with us 'dumb' conservatives?  Great Depression anyone?

http://americanhistory.about.com/od/greatdepression/tp/greatdepression.htm


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## CrashTest

littlelady said:


> Why does TJ never offer any info as to why she disagrees with us 'dumb' conservatives?  Great Depression anyone?
> 
> http://americanhistory.about.com/od/greatdepression/tp/greatdepression.htm



I'll translate.  "When you're broke, spend money you don't have and you'll become rich"


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## GURPS

tommyjo said:


> If you understood monetary systems, you would know that what is happening to Greece cannot happen here. *- Please enlighten us Mr Krugman*
> 
> Had you been following this slow motion train wreck since it began 5+ years ago, you would know that Greece's default on loans was inevitable.
> 
> Austerity does not, and never will, fix a badly damaged economy. Only growth will. *- right because continuing to spend money you don't have is the answer*
> 
> You think the *withdrawal of additional credit* last weekend was the cause of Greece's problems? *- Socialism is pretty cool, until you run out of Other Peoples Money - well Mr Krugman .. without additional credit extension, yes it all comes to a screeching halt - while not the cause, this is certainly the result*




*Austerity*


In economics, austerity is a set of policies with the aim of reducing government budget deficits. Austerity policies may include spending cuts, tax increases, or a mixture of both. Austerity may be undertaken to demonstrate the government's fiscal discipline to their creditors and credit rating agencies by bringing revenues closer to expenditures. In most macroeconomic models, austerity policies generally increase unemployment in the short run. This increases safety net spending and reduces tax revenues, partially offsetting the austerity measures. Government spending contributes to gross domestic product (GDP), so reducing spending may result in a higher debt-to-GDP ratio, a key measure of the debt burden carried by a country and its citizens. Higher short-term deficit spending (stimulus) contributes to GDP growth particularly when consumers and businesses are unwilling or unable to spend. This is because crowding out (i.e., rising interest rates as government bids against business for a finite amount of savings, slowing the economy) is less of a factor in a downturn, as there may be a surplus of savings.

There are other views contrary to traditional macroeconomic theory. Under the controversial theory of expansionary fiscal contraction (EFC), a major reduction in government spending can change future expectations about taxes and government spending, encouraging private consumption and resulting in overall economic expansion.

[clip]


*Justifications*

Austerity measures are typically pursued if there is a threat that a government cannot honor its debt liabilities. Such a situation may arise if a government has borrowed in foreign currencies that it has no right to issue or if it has been legally forbidden from issuing its own currency. In such a situation, banks and investors may lose trust in a government's ability and/or willingness to pay and either refuse to roll over existing debts or demand extremely high interest rates. International financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may require austerity measures as part of Structural Adjustment Programmes when acting as lender of last resort. Austerity policies may also appeal to the wealthier class of creditors, who prefer low inflation and the higher probability of payback on their government securities by less profligate governments. More recently austerity has been pursued after governments became highly indebted by assuming private debts following banking crises. For example, this occurred after Ireland assumed the debts of its private banking sector during the European debt crisis. This rescue of the private sector resulted in calls to cut back the profligacy of the public sector.




*How the Case for Austerity Has Crumbled*


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## GURPS

this should make TJ's head explode ... a VMWare Engineer Explaining the Greek Problem


*What exactly happened to the Greek economy?*

I know that they need money from other European countries and they are heavily in debt. I know that the basic commodities have become very costly there too. 
But what happens on a more basic level? They run out of foreign reserve, but can't they get things by trade?



_Kostadis Roussos, principal engineer at VMWare

There are macro reasons, which are simple and easy: too much corruption etc. 

But that doesn't explain why exactly the Greek economy chose to implode in 2008.

The short answer is the following:

The Greek Economy starting approximately in 1984 started a massive expansion of the amount of money the government spent within the economy. This expansion continued throughout the next 20 years.

The problem with the expansion is that it was not fueled by taxes but through debt. 

There were two sources of debt income. The first was the EU which gave the Greek economy a lot of money to improve the country. The second was inflation. What most non-Greeks and most Greeks under the age of 30 don't remember, is that in the period around 1981->1992 we experienced rapid devaluation of our currency and our savings. In fact sometime in the 1988->1992 period -- I can't remember the exact timing inflation was on a hyper-inflationary trajectory ... Stores were offering discounts if you paid in cash now, and prices were changing very rapidly. 

Before monetary union access to EU debt was harder than it became after the union. 

So up until EU monetary union the situation was unstable and heading to a fall but the rate of accumulation of debt was low.

However, the evil cocktail was brewed and drunk. The cocktail was the following: many Greeks derived some income from the state. This was either indirect - working for a firm that had contracts or directly for the state. The only way to increase income was to get the state to give you more. The only way the state could get more was to borrow. In the past when the amount giving out exceeded the amount coming we would have inflation. 
_​


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## itsbob

tommyjo said:


> If you understood monetary systems, you would know that what is happening to Greece cannot happen here.
> 
> Had you been following this slow motion train wreck since it began 5+ years ago, you would know that Greece's default on loans was inevitable. Austerity does not, and never will, fix a badly damaged economy. Only growth will.
> 
> But you only know what the right wing propaganda internet sources tell you. You think the withdrawal of additional credit last weekend was the cause of Greece's problems? You don't understand and likely never will. Go back to reading Young Conservatives or Briebart...



What austerity exactly?

So instead of telling us all we know nothing about it, give us facts.  Tell us the why and how, and give us the differences in economies that can ensure it not happening here (or US territories like Puerto Rico, or US States like California).

You accuse most of us of reciting verbatim from conservative sites, that i, for one, never read, yet you do the same.  

Copying and pasting from liberal sites with no knowledge or actual thought put into it.  You believe what you read, and echo what you read no matter how wrong and convoluted it is.

You're the worst kind of liberal.  Too stupid to think for themselves so just swallows the party line hook line and sinker..


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## Gilligan

itsbob said:


> .... swallows the party line hook line and sinker..




She's got the swallowing part down pat.


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## PeoplesElbow

Sure everyone knows when you can't pay your bills that you need to continue to spend like a drunken sailor (no offense meant to drunken sailors).


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## Larry Gude

GURPS said:


> ...could this action ever come to the US...




Could??? You miss the auto bail outs? You miss TARP? Quantitative easing? 

It's been going on in the US, non stop, from fall of '08 up to last fall, 6 full years of transferring about $1 trillion a year out of the economy and into Too Big To Fail. 

We can quibble that it has not been a direct 'shave' as per your link yet that pretends money isn't fungible. We can pretend that the debt the Fed has taken on isn't owed to them and that it was the best, or even a good use of the power to borrow from the economy. Yet, if we take a couple different views, it's pretty easy to see how enormous the impact has been. 

What if we'd simply written off $6 trillion this past six years instead of lent it to ourselves? 
What if we'd put that $6 trillion into the economy by simply handing out $3,000 a year to every man, woman and child in the US for six years? 

The ONLY solution to the Greek problem is to WIPE out their debt and lend them new money at higher rates. There IS business to be had with them. It just got out of balance and the people who were chasing profits by lending to them simply need to swallow the loss and get on with new business. They can pay SOMETHING. They just can't pay what is owed. So, that deal went bad. Time for a new deal. 

It's that simple.


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## Larry Gude

tommyjo said:


> Only growth will. ..



And how does that growth happen with debt you can't manage? You shed the debt. It's just that simple. Any growth that would be high enough to service the old debt and new debt would simply devalue everything in sight, including the value of the old debt. Now, you and I both know that that is the goal; to make the old debt look smaller via 'growth' but it doesn't change reality. It is simply crushing the value of current dollars to make it sound better. It is playing monopoly with the new boards where $500 bills are labeled $500,000. It sounds bigger but it changes nothing. 

Write the #### off. Charge higher interest rates, they'll naturally borrow less but it will me NEW business and the lenders will be making real earnings instead of simply adding zero's to the new, effectively taking those zeros from the old and calling it good. 

Write it off.


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## Merlin99

O





Larry Gude said:


> And how does that growth happen with debt you can't manage? You shed the debt. It's just that simple. Any growth that would be high enough to service the old debt and new debt would simply devalue everything in sight, including the value of the old debt. Now, you and I both know that that is the goal; to make the old debt look smaller via 'growth' but it doesn't change reality. It is simply crushing the value of current dollars to make it sound better. It is playing monopoly with the new boards where $500 bills are labeled $500,000. It sounds bigger but it changes nothing.
> 
> Write the #### off. Charge higher interest rates, they'll naturally borrow less but it will me NEW business and the lenders will be making real earnings instead of simply adding zero's to the new, effectively taking those zeros from the old and calling it good.
> 
> Write it off.



Larry, you make a hell of a progressive. You rail on about "To big to fail", but someone proposes it on a national scale you're all for it. Sell off all of the assets, Parthenon included, and pay you debts. Self converting a loan to a grant is bad for everyone.


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## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> Write it off.





Then what?? In the case of a country like Greece, specifically, where everyone not retired by age 45 and collecting 14 months of astonishingly generous pension checks ""works"" for the government.


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## Larry Gude

Merlin99 said:


> O
> 
> Larry, you make a hell of a progressive. You rail on about "To big to fail", but someone proposes it on a national scale you're all for it. Sell off all of the assets, Parthenon included, and pay you debts. Self converting a loan to a grant is bad for everyone.



Good point and one worth debating.  

Here is the difference, as I see it: 

Remember the Resolution Trust Corp, Bush 41's best achievement? They identified a major problem, proposed a reasonable fix, set it up, fixed it and, not totally but essentially shut it down. In my view, that was a FANTASTIC use of the size, scope and power of the federal government. 

TARP, nominally, was a one time thing so, so far, so good. That said, it was effectively written into law with Dodd/Frank. It is NOT shut down. Further, with QE, it went on for 6 years and NO ONE honestly thinks it won't happen again the moment Wall Street shows any signs of coming down off the crack high.


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## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> Then what?? In the case of a country like Greece, specifically, where everyone not retired by age 45 and collecting 14 months of astonishingly generous pension checks ""works"" for the government.



The FIRST question is;  WHAT is the problem? 

In my mind, something that is not working, at all, comes first. Then we can move on to then what. 

That said, I answered that; higher interest rates. That alone will temper Greek borrowing, same as it would anyone else. Money was cheap so, Greece borrowed a lot and the people 
that lent it were, it seems, more interested in lending it than how it was gonna get paid back.   


Why is writing off debt such a problem for so many people? If you owe me and you can't pay but you are a going concern that wants to do new business with me, I can either not lend and NOT get paid back or I can write old debt off, lend you new money at higher rates to make back my loss. You'll borrow less because of the rates and I'll make as much or more off of less risk. This is not some radical concept.


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## Tilted

The collective ingratitude of the Greek people, demonstrated by their no vote on this referendum, is astounding. I hope their creditors don't back down and come back to the table with more lenient and/or forgiving terms. They've been far too gracious and far too forgiving already, and what they've asked for has been plenty reasonable.

Yes, of course, the austerity they demand means a lower standard of living for the average Greek and less growth (or more contraction) for the Greek economy. But tough luck, the Greeks have been living too far beyond their means (i.e. beyond what their real productivity could justify) for far too long. They got to live the high life without putting in the work to pay for it, now they have to pay the bill without getting to enjoy the high life. The austerity will do real harm to their economy well into the future, but that's the price they need to pay for their actions - reality catches up with all of us eventually, and the more we try to avoid it the more likely it is to be a mother ####er when it does find us. Reality is knocking Greece, answer the door or not she's coming in. Yes, they'll be a compounding effect from an austerity-inhibited economy trying to pay back debts. But that's your problem. At least you will be able to pay those debts back, if you're willing to suffer a sufficiently reduced standard of living - if you're willing to accept not being spoiled brats like you've so long been.

Their creditors have made them more-than-fair offers, offers that might allow them to survive as a nation. If they think they'd be better off remaining indignant, by acting like babies and just defaulting, they're as unrealistic as they are ungrateful. Their creditors of course don't want to lose all of their money, and other nations' economies would be impacted somewhat (and to varying degrees); but Greece would get the worst of it. And they'd be worse off than they would taking the deals that have been offered. They think the austerity that has been asked of them is bad, I don't think they understand how bad bad can get. But they'll find out if they, in effect, force the EU to kick them out or choose to leave on their own. Unless their creditors buckle, that's basically what this no vote is - it's a vote to leave the EU. Again, I hope their creditors stay strong and we can get on with getting this over with. Without other people willing to finance their unproductive lifestyles, they just can't support themselves to anywhere near the standard they expect - even to the austerity level they're refusing to accept. Their only hope is that their creditors cave in to their unreasonableness, indulge their unconscionable defiance.

A nation of 11 million plus people can't be supported by 155 people working, especially when only 80 of those people are doing something other than make-work type stuff. They think they should be able to live 75 years while only working for 2 of them, and only working 15 hours a week when they do. Hopefully they're about to get a long overdue introduction to reality, how unpleasant an introduction it will be is up to them. It sure seems like they want it to be as nasty an introduction as it can be. So be it. Please, please, please to their creditors: They're bound and determined to dig their own grave, for all ours sake let them go ahead and jump into it so that we can begin to put this silliness behind us. It's time the world, and the rest of Europe in particular, tells the Greek people to go #### themselves.


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> The collective ingratitude of the Greek people, demonstrated by their no vote on this referendum, is astounding. I hope their creditors don't back down and come back to the table with more lenient and/or forgiving terms.  .



So, what do you propose, just start backing trucks up and repossess the islands one at a time until they relent? 

You don't know any Greeks, do you? Next step; their new bestest buddy Uncle Vlad and ZILCH for the current creditors.


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> It's time the world, and the rest of Europe in particular, tells the Greek people to go #### themselves.



I hear you and then the next question; are you OK with them going to Russia and the creditors getting nothing? Or maybe a partial settlement from Putin?


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## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> I hear you and then the next question; are you OK with them going to Russia and the creditors getting nothing? Or maybe a partial settlement from Putin?



What money is Putin going to use ...and what on earth would it buy him if he had it waste on supporting a permanently-failed country like Greece?


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## Gilligan

Greece is the poster child for the failures of what the Bernie Sanders of the world are so in love with.

Sooner or later..they run out out of other people's money.


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## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> Greece is the poster child for the failures of what the Bernie Sanders of the world are so in love with.
> 
> Sooner or later..they run out out of other people's money.



No, they don't. There is the ECB. There is the Fed. There is PLENTY of other people's money. 

One of the things we don't like about socialism is that, simply put, it CAN work. A properly functioning socialist economy is like a spigot that is attached to the drain; once you get it primed, the only thing that stops it from working is an obstruction somewhere(s). You sell me beer, I pay you, you buy more beer, you buy more beer you pay for it, the guy you paid for more beer pays for more ingredients to make more beer, the guys who get paid for more ingredients to make more beer pays me for more ingredients and...I buy more beer. 

In that system, it is both capitalist and socialist and works if well balanced. Capitalism ####s it all up when a Carnegie or Rockefeller comes along with their OCD and wants to profit off all the efficiency and elasticity that makes the thing go, so, guys not operating in an obsessive and compulsive manner get killed off. Socialism ####s it all up when it allows the non obsessive/compulsive (aka 'Greeks") to operate TOO loosely.


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## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> So, what do you propose, just start backing trucks up and repossess the islands one at a time until they relent?
> 
> You don't know any Greeks, do you? Next step; their new bestest buddy Uncle Vlad and ZILCH for the current creditors.





Larry Gude said:


> I hear you and then the next question; are you OK with them going to Russia and the creditors getting nothing? Or maybe a partial settlement from Putin?



I'm not one of their creditors, so yeah - I'm okay with total default. 

For economies in general, and ours in particular, I think that's better than continuing to indulge their ingratitude and unreasonableness. I think continuing to play this game for another 2 or 4 or 8 years would do even more harm than them defaulting. By now the most impacted parties have had time to make preparations for and mitigate the potentially cascading effects of their defaulting. There's the possibility that the lack of confidence a Greek default would cause would quickly spill over into, e.g., Spain and Portugal and cause bank runs (or compel capital controls) which turn a Greek default event into a bigger problem for the global economy. But I think that's a risk we just have to accept at this point, and I think we'd most likely be able to isolate most of the worst effects and keep the bulk of the devastation local. You can never be sure with such things of course. They depend so much on collective confidence, which can be quite fickle and build momentum in who knows what direction fairly suddenly.

I understand that for certain parties - e.g. for certain creditors - the downside of a major Grrek default would be big, very damaging. That's why I'm left asking them to endure it, I'm not in their positions. But for the rest of ours sake, and for the global economy, we'd be better off I think if they would hold the line against Greece. At some point the message has to be sent that you don't get to do this - you don't get to live high on the hog with others paying for it, while you are highly unproductive yourself, and never get around to paying that imbalance back. Greece isn't the first or the only example of that, and in various embodiments the world has indulged such things - it hasn't sent the message that needs to be sent. But having let such things go so long, there's no time for the present to start handling them correctly and sending the needed messages. And though I'd tend to have compassion for the Greeks, their ingratitude in this situation - their being completely unreasonable in insisting that others continue to pay the price for their unrealistic lifestyles, rather than accepting that they have to pay a fair bit of the price themselves - has me in a less than compassionate mood. Their position is just... offensive. I'm not sure how else to describe it.

As for Putin moving in to be their new buddy: Okay. Without a major shift in their attitudes, and their willingness to be productive enough to support themselves - things they've steadfastly resisted heretofore - they'd likely be more of a liability than an asset to any new buddies they might make. If Putin wants to support them, to keep them afloat, so be it. I think it would be more of a drain on the Russian economy than anything. Really, what do they have to offer other than some historic sites and tourist traffic? What do they do other than borrow from others to finance make-work government jobs?

I guess I'm just feed up with the Greeks at this point, so maybe I'm not thinking completely rationally about the situation. But they've been bad actors here. They are not the only ones, but they are most responsible for their situation and yet they want to pretend that others are treating them unfairly. They greet helping hands extended in good faith (albeit self-interested good faith) with ingratitude and bad faith - essentially, economic extortion. To hell with them, they need to pay for their behavior and they're unreasonableness. They want to blow themselves up, I wish the interested parties would let them even though it would mean accepting some of the fallout themselves. They've held the European economy, and thus to some extent the American economy, hostage for too long. It's time to stop negotiating with economic terrorists.

I mixed the #### out of some metaphors, didn't I?


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## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> No, they don't. .



Yes..they did.


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## Gilligan

Tilted said:


> At some point the message has to be sent that you don't get to do this - you don't get to live high on the hog with others paying for it, while you are highly unproductive yourself, and never get around to paying that imbalance back.



Yep.


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> I guess I'm just feed up with the Greeks at this point, so maybe I'm not thinking completely rationally about the situation. But they've been bad actors here. They are not the only ones, but they are most responsible for their situation and yet they want to pretend that others are treating them unfairly. They greet helping hands extended in good faith (albeit self-interested good faith) with ingratitude and bad faith - essentially, economic extortion. To hell with them, they need to pay for their behavior and they're unreasonableness. They want to blow themselves up, I wish the interested parties would let them even though it would mean accepting some of the fallout themselves. They've held the European economy, and thus to some extent the American economy, hostage for too long. It's time to stop negotiating with economic terrorists.
> 
> I mixed the #### out of some metaphors, didn't I?




Let's start with stuff we'd agree on, shall we? First, we ARE talking about Greece. Next, you start the EU and tell me that Germany and Greece are going to be in it and I will tell you who is going to be on top and who is going to be on bottom. In short order. You tell me you'll flip it and give Greece all the money and the Germans little or none and I will tell you who will be on top. Again. And in short order. 

The question becomes not one of who 'wins' and who 'loses'. It's a given, period. The question is is it a game of winners and losers OR a game where everyone wants to keep playing? There is no way, shape or form Greece ever beats Germany. Or France. Or Spain or pretty much anyone. They were, are and will be bringing up the rear. So, knowing that going in, this situation was predictable at any point before the game started and at any point along the way AND when this gets 'fixed' it WILL happen again. If it is winners and losers, capitalism, Greece loses. You foreclose, take all their #### and...what? Enslave them? Jail them? Make them become Germans? 

So, what if it is a question of just keeping the game going? Yes, that is socialism but, it removes the question of what to do with the losers; they just get to keep playing. Everyone benefited to some extent by them being in the game even if it wasn't purely economic gain. maybe it's cultural gain. Maybe it's as simple as peace. To be for sure, it has not been a bad peace. It has not been a peace that has caused ANY hardship to much of anyone BESIDES the Greeks. So, keep them in the game. 

Now, my plan, write it off, loan them new dough at higher interest rates. Structure it so that the creditors hurt by the write off are first in line to benefit from the higher interest rates. Make it so they get made whole again over, what, 10 years? 7? Either way that is FAR preferable to "hey, guys, we need you to take one for the team so we can show them Greeks what's what!"  In my view, the elimination of debt coupled to higher interest rates in EXCHANGE for the write off will be all the Greeks need to be more careful, more attentive to their own slackness. Heck, couple the deal to some level of repayment of the old if that makes people feel better, just extend it well out. I prefer cleaning it up and starting over but, that's just me. Or cap loan totals to something. Whatever. Just clean up and do new business. 

Now, let's call me wrong and go with y'alls plan. As I understand it, your plan is to make them suffer. Make them get up and go to work. Make them spend less. Make them be more productive. Make them be more...German? That is the 'helping hand' they see. They're not going to become more German. They're not going to become more Spanish. Or Italian. Or Polish. And, bailing them out is not going to mean those other weaker nations are going to become more Greek. If you want the next weakest nation to become the next Greece, let Greece suffer and fail. Isn't that what would happen? Or do you think you can get Greeks to not be Greeks through all this? 

That's the choice here; winners and losers or keep the game going. If they are forced out, dollars and sense isn't going to matter to Putin; rebuilding empire will. There is value far beyond money here. And all Putin would be doing, basically, is offering them my deal and reaping the benefits. 

:shrug:


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## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> Yep.



They're Greeks. Come on.


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## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> Yes..they did.



No, they haven't. Y'all are proposing shutting off the spigot, a spigot that has PLENTY of supply. To suggest Greece is remotely close to running out of other people's money could not be more wrong in this day and age.


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## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> No, they haven't. Y'all are proposing shutting off the spigot, a spigot that has PLENTY of supply. To suggest Greece is remotely close to running out of other people's money could not be more wrong in this day and age.



pfft. when was the last time you decided to simply pump endless sums of money in to the bank accounts of others so that they could sit home and live large every day?  With zero expectation of any return?


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## Gilligan

I just love this crap. 

This:  





> “Any person who is able to think for themselves will vote ‘no.’ I did,” said Anna Stavrouli, a 46-year-old *public-sector employee *



Followed by this:



> “The Greek people are sending the message that they are* taking their lives into their own hands*,” he said. “One can ignore a government’s will. Nobody can ignore a nation’s will.”



   There is much irony in Greece.




http://www.wsj.com/articles/polls-close-in-greek-referendum-1436113280?mod=fox_australian


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## PeoplesElbow

So why would a creditor take a chance on a nation that could not pay off its debt and had it "written off"?  

Fool me once....

Putin on the other hand could play the role of a loan shark,  dont pay me back no problem,  the Greeks want to be Russians just like the Ukraines.


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## Gilligan

PeoplesElbow said:


> So why would a creditor take a chance on a nation that could not pay off its debt and had it "written off"?
> 
> Fool me once....
> 
> Putin on the other hand could play the role of a loan shark,  dont pay me back no problem,  the Greeks want to be Russians just like the Ukraines.



The rates of return on the debt that some of the failing countries are paying will always entice somebody in to loaning them money.   10-12% returns are always going to bring out the gamblers.  But it's a death spiral....eventually somebody loses big time.

I'm going to sit back and watch Larry loan out all his cash and then, when the loans default, ahma buy me some nice green houses and raise killer pot.


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## Tilted

Larry - So what do you think happens if the interested parties do what I'm saying I hope they do? If Greece's creditors and the ECB, e.g., hold the line in the face of this no vote - this middle finger that the Greek people are giving them?

Greek political leaders are counting on this no vote - which many of them advocated for - giving them more leverage with their creditors and/or the ECB. They're counting on creditors caving in and giving them a better deal, with more lenient conditions, or the ECB or IMF extending more financial aid. We say #### you, they say... well, in that case, you've got us by the balls so here we'll offer to let you take even more advantage of us. I'm saying they shouldn't respond to the Greek middle finger by bending over further, they should instead stand up, turn around, and say... well, you had your chance and you passed on it, apparently you'd prefer to #### yourself so we're gonna let you do just that.

So, if they did that, what do you think happens next? Let's start with a few understandings. Greeks have been withdrawing money form their nation's banks. They may be lazy, ungrateful thieves, but they aren't complete morons. They know that without ongoing aid their banks would run out of money pretty quickly. Capital controls are already in place. The only thing preventing a full-on bank run is the limitation on how much Greeks can withdraw from their bank accounts each day. Greece relies on imports for many things, there's just lots of stuff they don't do for themselves. Foreign parties won't extend them credit anymore, there's not enough reason to think they'll be good for it. And there are limits on what money can be sent out of the country to pay for the things that Greeks need.

Greek banks reportedly have a billion or so dollars worth of funds that they can, without ongoing outside help, pay out to depositors. That's for a nation of 11 million or so people. If they don't get some kind of new deal almost immediately now - if this no vote doesn't scare their creditors into offering better terms - the ECB won't be able to keep giving their banks loans to cover further withdrawals. It won't be allowed to (and this is part of the hard line I'm saying the other parties should take).

Further, just so we're clear, Greece doesn't control its currency - that's the Euro. It can't print more, it can't have a central bank extend emergency loans to its other banks. Their situation is much different than ours. And if they want to start using their own currency - the Drachma - it'll be worth less than it costs to print it (warning: slight exaggeration).

What all of that adds up to is: They're ####ed. Unless, that is, their creditors or the ECB or IMF cave, and quickly. They'd be a cash on delivery account with basically no cash on hand. Oh, and they rely on others - those that will only deliver for cash - for many of their essentials. If their creditors and the ECB do what I'm saying, they really will be on the verge of running out of money. Who is going to extend them the kind of credit they need if they default, in grand fashion with a huge middle finger, on their existing debts - and, as a nation that's not very productive and can't demonstrate a likelihood of future positive cash flow?

Now, maybe the Russians would step in and adopt them as you suggest - basically start supporting the whole nation. So be it, they get access to some nice tourist spots and historically (hugely) significant sites in return for further imperiling their own economy. They better hope energy prices breakout soon though, otherwise I'm not sure how long they could afford that particular kept lady.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> Larry - So what do you think happens if the interested parties do what I'm saying I hope they do? If Greece's creditors and the ECB, e.g., hold the line in the face of this no vote - this middle finger that the Greek people are giving them?
> 
> Greek political leaders are counting on this no vote - which many of them advocated for - giving them more leverage with their creditors and/or the ECB. They're counting on creditors caving in and giving them a better deal, with more lenient conditions, or the ECB or IMF extending more financial aid. We say #### you, they say... well, in that case, you've got us by the balls so here we'll offer to let you take even more advantage of us. I'm saying they shouldn't respond to the Greek middle finger by bending over further, they should instead stand up, turn around, and say... well, you had your chance and you passed on it, apparently you'd prefer to #### yourself so we're gonna let you do just that.
> 
> So, if they did that, what do you think happens next? Let's start with a few understandings. Greeks have been withdrawing money form their nation's banks. They may be lazy, ungrateful thieves, but they aren't complete morons. They know that without ongoing aid their banks would run out of money pretty quickly. Capital controls are already in place. The only thing preventing a full-on bank run is the limitation on how much Greeks can withdraw from their bank accounts each day. Greece relies on imports for many things, there's just lots of stuff they don't do for themselves. Foreign parties won't extend them credit anymore, there's not enough reason to think they'll be good for it. And there are limits on what money can be sent out of the country to pay for the things that Greeks need.
> 
> Greek banks reportedly have a billion or so dollars worth of funds that they can, without ongoing outside help, pay out to depositors. And that's for a nation of 11 million or so. And if they don't get some kind of new deal almost immediately now - if this no vote doesn't scare their creditors into offering better terms - the ECB won't be able to keep giving their banks loans to cover further withdrawals. It won't be allowed to (and this is part of the hard line I'm saying the other parties should take).
> 
> Further, just so we're clear, Greece doesn't control its currency - that's the Euro. It can't print more, it can't have a central bank extend emergency loans to its other banks. Their situation is much different than ours. And if they want to start using their own currency - the Drachma - it'll be worth less than it costs to print it (slight exaggeration warning).
> 
> What all of that adds up to is: They're ####ed. Unless, that is, their creditors or the ECB or IMF cave, and quickly. They'd be a cash on delivery account with basically no cash on hand. Oh, and they rely on others - those that will only deliver for cash - for many of their essentials. If their creditors and the ECB do what I'm saying, they really will be on the verge of running out of money. Who is going to extend them the kind of credit they need if they default, in grand fashion with a huge middle finger, on their existing debts - and, as a nation that's not very productive and can't in any way demonstrate a likelihood of future positive cash flow.
> 
> Now, maybe the Russians would step in and adopt them as you suggest - basically start supporting the whole nation. So be it, they get access to some nice tourist spots and historically (hugely significant sites in return for further imperiling their own economy. They better hope energy prices breakout soon though, otherwise I'm not sure how long they could afford that particular kept lady.



As I way, let's call me wrong. Paint me a picture of what happens your way.


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## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> The rates of return on the debt that some of the failing countries are paying will always entice somebody in to loaning them money.   10-12% returns are always going to bring out the gamblers.  But it's a death spiral....eventually somebody loses big time.
> 
> I'm going to sit back and watch Larry loan out all his cash and then, when the loans default, ahma buy me some nice green houses and raise killer pot.



Their economy  is 250 bil a year. There is money to be made.


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## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> As I way, let's call me wrong. Paint me a picture of what happens your way.



I thought I just did.  At least, the beginning of it...

Greece would be ####ed. It wouldn't be long before they were saying... what did we do, what did our leaders do to us? Give us back that austerity stuff in exchange for ongoing credit, it sounds like an awful sweet deal right about now. Really, their options would be pretty darn limited. Economic collapse, national ghetto-ization (non-standard meaning). What can we sell to keep the lights turned on and the needed medical supplies coming? Please, please, please world.... Europe... Germany... whoever... we're sorry, help us. I don't think we'd be talking about a recession, I think we'd be talking about a great depression - hopefully a localized one. And without the kindness of some of those that they gave the middle finger to, I think it wouldn't be too long before they saw significant emigration.


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> I thought I just did.  At least, the beginning of it...
> 
> Greece would be ####ed. It wouldn't be long before they were saying... what did we do, what did our leaders do to us? Give us back that austerity stuff in exchange for ongoing credit, it sounds like an awful sweet deal right about now. Really, their options would be pretty darn limited. Economic collapse, national ghetto-ization (non-standard meaning). What can we sell to keep the lights turned on and the needed medical supplies coming? Please, please, please world.... Europe... Germany... whoever... we're sorry, help us. I don't think we'd be talking about a recession, I think we'd be talking about a great depression - hopefully a localized one. And without the kindness of some of those that they gave the middle finger to, I think it wouldn't be too long before they saw significant emigration.



Well I guess  we'll soon see.


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## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Their economy  is 250 bil a year. There is money to be made.



A make-work economy. Financed by foreign borrowing. Not entirely, of course; but to too great a degree.

Two key metrics that might help paint the picture - What portion of the population actually works? And then, what portion of them work for the government.

Greece does of course have some assets and some industry that matters - just not enough, they're just not collectively productive enough to not have continuous net assistance (in the form of lending or outright aid, not just trade) from the rest of the world.


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Well I guess  we'll soon see.



If we're lucky. 

If there are enough men in Europe to stand up and say - enough is enough, if you want to destroy yourselves by all means don't let us get in your way.


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> If we're lucky.
> 
> If there are enough men in Europe to stand up and say - enough is enough, if you want to destroy yourselves by all means don't let us get in your way.



And then what? They become more productive producing what? So they end the excess government  jobs and those people then have to go to work doing what and being paid by whom? Being more productive, by definition, means less people needed to do whatever, exacerbating  their problem. I mean, do they have salt mines sitting idle or can they all go get paid to shovel #### in Siberia?  What are they going to produce and for whom? I see them as last place and for a whole host of reasons that demands to get a hair cut and get a real job wont, can't fix.


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## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> And then what? They become more productive producing what? So they end the excess government  jobs and those people then have to go to work doing what and being paid by whom? Being more productive, by definition, means less people needed to do whatever, exacerbating  their problem. I mean, do they have salt mines sitting idle or can they all go get paid to shovel #### in Siberia?  What are they going to produce and for whom? I see them as last place and for a whole host of reasons that demands to get a hair cut and get a real job wont, can't fix.



Well, as a general matter, they need to be more productive overall - not necessarily more productive per person that is working. Frankly, they need more people working. Of course, you can't just turn that on (unless you do make-work and have some way of financing it). It takes time to develop industry and figure out ways to make a labor force productive - things or services that it can sell to the rest of the world, and for which it can create internal demand and a self-perpetuating cycle.

They're just ####ed, they've done this to themselves over time. But the thing is, people are willing to help them if they'll just demonstrate a modest amount of discipline and make modest concessions. People are willing to continue to finance their lack of productivity, maybe giving them time to fix their systemic problem and develop industry and productivity. But they are refusing that help. They are saying, we'll only let you help us if you'll do so while letting us continue to be as irresponsible and unrealistic as we've long been.

Their osition makes no sense. I don't know if many of them are just that oblivious to how ####ed they are, or if they're just that confident that the rest of Europe will cave. But their economy is already grinding to a halt. This week has been bad and, without a quick deal, it's only going to get worse tomorrow. And now they're hurting their tourism, which they rely so heavily on.

Pensioners can't get their benefits, and pensioners make up 103.6% of the nation. And I can't stress the significance of this enough: Capital controls for a nation that relies heavily on imports for essential life resources. The import of that reality, for the plight of Greek people, is hard to overstate.


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## Larry Gude

PeoplesElbow said:


> So why would a creditor take a chance on a nation that could not pay off its debt and had it "written off"?
> 
> Fool me once....
> 
> Putin on the other hand could play the role of a loan shark,  dont pay me back no problem,  the Greeks want to be Russians just like the Ukraines.



Greece HAS money. They HAVE an economy. The problem is that they don't have enough to do their day to day spending and make their payments. As is, they're not paying back anything. Tilted's argument is that if creditors 'man up' and let them suffer, Greece will, somehow, find the money they owe and pay it. Maybe they will? In the mean time, if you do business with them, say, sell them, I dunno, bread, and you're payments are tied to the Euro and with Greece in default, you don't get paid, can't get paid, so, you do what? Even if they already owe you whatever it is, if you stop doing business with them, that means your workers stop, right? You buy that much less ingredients. Maybe to start to lose your economy of scale and your per unit costs go up because of it. Now what? Do you start charging your other customers more??? 

This is a really interesting topic because it is where we're headed.


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## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Greece HAS money. They HAVE an economy. The problem is that they don't have enough to do their day to day spending and make their payments. As is, they're not paying back anything. Tilted's argument is that if creditors 'man up' and let them suffer, Greece will, somehow, find the money they owe and pay it. Maybe they will? In the mean time, if you do business with them, say, sell them, I dunno, bread, and you're payments are tied to the Euro and with Greece in default, you don't get paid, can't get paid, so, you do what? Even if they already owe you whatever it is, if you stop doing business with them, that means your workers stop, right? You buy that much less ingredients. Maybe to start to lose your economy of scale and your per unit costs go up because of it. Now what? Do you start charging your other customers more???
> 
> This is a really interesting topic because it is where we're headed.



That's not my argument at all. I'm not saying they'll find the money and pay their debts. Doing so, and accepting real austerity in deals with their creditors that would make it possible for them to do so, is the only thing that makes sense for them. The alternative is going to be much much worse - unless, as I've suggested, their creditors cave.

But they've made their choice not to. So I'm not saying they're gonna reverse course if their creditors take a hard line. I'm just saying their creditors should take a hard line. Let them default, the global economy will likely quickly be better off. Greece will be ####ed, but they'll have done the deed themselves despite others begging Greece to let them help.


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> Well, as a general matter, they need to be more productive overall - not necessarily more productive per person that is working. Frankly, they need more people working. Of course, you can't just turn that on (unless you do make-work and have some way of financing it). It takes time to develop industry and figure out ways to make a labor force productive - things or services that it can sell to the rest of the world, and for which it can create internal demand and a self-perpetuating cycle.
> 
> They're just ####ed, they've done this to themselves over time. But the thing is, people are willing to help them if they'll just demonstrate a modest amount of discipline and make modest concessions. People are willing to continue to finance their lack of productivity, maybe giving them time to fix their systemic problem and develop industry and productivity. But they are refusing that help. They are saying, we'll only let you help us if you'll do so while letting us continue to be as irresponsible and unrealistic as we've long been.
> 
> Their osition makes no sense. I don't know if many of them are just that oblivious to how ####ed they are, or if they're just that confident that the rest of Europe will cave. But their economy is already grinding to a halt. This week has been bad and, without a quick deal, it's only going to get worse tomorrow. And now they're hurting their tourism, which they rely so heavily on.
> 
> Pensioners can't get their benefits, and pensioners make up 103.6% of the nation. And I can't stress the significance of this enough: Capital controls for a nation that relies heavily on imports for essential life resources. The import of that reality, for the plight of Greek people, is hard to overstate.



Please understand I am not trying to make excuses for Greece. I just think I am being realistic; this was the way they were, this is the way they are, this is the way they will be. They are NOT Germany where the norm is pretty much everyone is pretty much productive all the time as a simple rule. 

As I read more about Greece, tourism, as you say, is HUGE as are services in general, some 80% of their economy, so, that doesn't stop, right? Why would that be hurt? If anything, maybe costs fall and it's even more attractive to go? They bring Euro's with them, yes? So, 80% of the economy continues. It seems they can feed themselves. They're NOT going to start making widgets to compete with Germany. They're not going to suddenly start growing huge excess's to export. They're big in shipping and that won't stop or everyone elses freight costs will go up as supply falls. They have some textiles and mining, so, that's a resource they, ostensibly, already sell on the current market. 

There is something like $500 bil in Euro's floating around and Greece missing a $1 billion payment just caused a loss of $5 billion in value of the Euro. 

I've read that our Wall Street helped them engineer swaps in the recent past to hide their deficits and debt. Ostensibly, Goldman and the others didn't do that for free. Not only are they thus culpable, they made money at it. Greek anger doesn't seem very hard to understand. 

And, again, so, they have a bloated bureaucracy. So, they lay off, what, 20% of them and expect the rest to pick up the slack. Fine. What then of those 20%? Unemployment? Displace immigrants? If the immigrants get displaced, what about their landlords? So, real estate takes a hit. 

I'm asking you to help me see what being 'tough' with them is actually going to do. So far, I ain't seeing it. :shrug:


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## Tilted

I guess my point is this. If the Greeks are wrong and they haven't called a bluff but rather have said no to the last best offer they're going to get - then they will soon go from asking for financial aid to asking for humanitarian aid. This will soon be a humanitarian crisis. But even with that being the case, I hope they were wrong - I hope they haven't just successfully called a bluff. For the world's sake I hope that, even though for Greece's sake that would mean something that my humanity would wish could have been avoided.


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> That's not my argument at all. I'm not saying they'll find the money and pay their debts. Doing so, and accepting real austerity in deals with their creditors that would make it possible for them to do so, is the only thing that makes sense for them. The alternative is going to be much much worse - unless, as I've suggested, their creditors cave.
> 
> But they've made their choice not to. So I'm not saying they're gonna reverse course if their creditors take a hard line. I'm just saying their creditors should take a hard line. Let them default, the global economy will likely quickly be better off. Greece will be ####ed, but they'll have done the deed themselves despite others begging Greece to let them help.



But, what does that mean '####ed'??? Our posts are getting a little out of sequence so, maybe I need to slow my roll and allow you to sync us up. If they can feed themselves and most of the economy functions, tourism, shipping, some exports, they get the benefit of not having to make the payments and life pretty much goes on. Or I am missing something huge about this? 

Accepting austerity, as they see it, has been part of the problem. Cutting social spending will create MORE idle people. Raising taxes will create LESS money in the hands of those that work. Again, unless I am missing something here, if they can feed themselves, have things people want, tourism, ships, some exportable stuff, they're just gonna go on anyway. Heck, if they fire the drachma back up, the sense of national unity may well allow them to do it in an relatively austere fashion and that pride, that motivation, good lord, if that works fairly well, is that what the EU wants, for everyone to see it is not necessary???


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> I  This will soon be a humanitarian crisis.  .



Why? What factors will mean they can't feed themselves?


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> That's not my argument at all. I'm not saying they'll find the money and pay their debts. Doing so, and accepting real austerity in deals with their creditors that would make it possible for them to do so, is the only thing that makes sense for them. The alternative is going to be much much worse -  .



As they can feed themselves and have a core economy that other people WANT, I just don't see what could be worse and I see a LOT of upside to saying 'screw the debt'. Austerity simply means they tighten up their own belts so that they can give it to creditors. Put another way, if you owe me a dollar you don't have and I want you to tighten up your practices and cut a dollar in spending, basically, so you can give it to me, why would you do that?


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Please understand I am not trying to make excuses for Greece. I just think I am being realistic; this was the way they were, this is the way they are, this is the way they will be. They are NOT Germany where the norm is pretty much everyone is pretty much productive all the time as a simple rule.
> 
> As I read more about Greece, tourism, as you say, is HUGE as are services in general, some 80% of their economy, so, that doesn't stop, right? Why would that be hurt? If anything, maybe costs fall and it's even more attractive to go? They bring Euro's with them, yes? So, 80% of the economy continues. It seems they can feed themselves. They're NOT going to start making widgets to compete with Germany. They're not going to suddenly start growing huge excess's to export. They're big in shipping and that won't stop or everyone elses freight costs will go up as supply falls. They have some textiles and mining, so, that's a resource they, ostensibly, already sell on the current market.
> 
> There is something like $500 bil in Euro's floating around and Greece missing a $1 billion payment just caused a loss of $5 billion in value of the Euro.
> 
> I've read that our Wall Street helped them engineer swaps in the recent past to hide their deficits and debt. Ostensibly, Goldman and the others didn't do that for free. Not only are they thus culpable, they made money at it. Greek anger doesn't seem very hard to understand.
> 
> And, again, so, they have a bloated bureaucracy. So, they lay off, what, 20% of them and expect the rest to pick up the slack. Fine. What then of those 20%? Unemployment? Displace immigrants? If the immigrants get displaced, what about their landlords? So, real estate takes a hit.
> 
> I'm asking you to help me see what being 'tough' with them is actually going to do. So far, I ain't seeing it. :shrug:



I get you're not making excuses.

What being tough with them would do would be to allow European economies, and the global economy, to start to move on - take the hit and stop being held hostage in perpetuity. It would also strongly suggest to other global actors, e.g., to other nations, that despite everything that recent decades' experience has seemed to show us, reality is still lurking out there somewhere. It is possible that, at some point, she'll come knocking on your door and if you don't answer she has the ability to come crashing in anyway. We really, really, really need that message to get across. Too many actors have been getting away with acting as though reality is not a concern they need to be bothered to take into account, it can either be avoided forever or it would take so long to get within striking distance that little consideration need to be given to it so long as it remains small on the horizon.

As for their economy, and what this means for it: The people of Greece can't take money out of the bank, or they can only take small amounts out. If they were allowed to take more out, the banks would quickly have to close up completely. They just don't have the money to give to depositors. So people don't have money to spend. They don't have money to keep the economy moving. Demand is drying up because they don't have money, it's a self-perpetuating cycle. It doesn't take much to grind modern economies to a halt. And theirs is grinding to a halt as we speak. Pensioners - which a lot of Greeks are - can't get their full benefits. They don't have the money to buy the things they need, and thus even more demand disappears. And people aren't allowed to send money out of the country, or their ability to do so is meaningfully restricted. But at the same time, essentials that they need to live are imported - fuel, medical supplies, you name it. They can't pay for them, and no one is going to give them credit now. They are quintessentially ####ed. They are left praying that their creditors cave and give them another deal so that the ECB can start giving their banks loans again and so that, maybe, the capital controls can be lifted or relaxed. Beyond that, they're left hoping for humanitarian aid.


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## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Why? What factors will mean they can't feed themselves?



Baby formula for their babies. Insulin for their diabetics. Gas for their cars. That kind of stuff. Greece imports essential stuff, which is okay if you can pay for it. Lots of nations trade for things they don't produce themselves, things they'd struggle to survive without. But they can't pay for stuff now.


EDIT: And to respond to other threads, wrt tourism - it is reportedly already being affected. Who wants to vacation in a nation not knowing to what degree social order might break down while they're there? And to get money out of an ATM you have to wait in line behind 30 Greeks trying to withdraw their daily $70. And I sure as heck wouldn't want to carry a lot of money around on me when so many locals are short on cash.


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> They can't pay for them, and no one is going to give them credit now. They are quintessentially ####ed. They are left praying that their creditors cave and give them another deal so that the ECB can start giving their banks loans again and so that, maybe, the capital controls can be lifted or relaxed. Beyond that, they're left hoping for humanitarian aid.



If 18% of GDP is tourism, is it fair to say that they have 1 in 5 'dollars' coming in day after day? Is it fair to say that anyone paying to use Greek ships, buying Greek exports, is going to want to keep doing so? From what I can tell, They import $2 for each dollar of exports so, on paper, they can pay for half their imports. That's ongoing daily transactions, yes? 
Again, as far as I can tell, they can feed themselves, readily. So, It's not Somalia. 

For the pensioners, for everyone, if there is food, then, as a small nation, it becomes a matter of coming together in crisis, yes? It's 11 million people. Is it not reasonable that each and every small town can come together and take care of one another for a couple week or even a few months as the government gets a new currency set up going? Hell, I thought the US could have sustained the pain of a couple of months of FIXING the banking crisis instead of band aiding it. And we're not even remotely one people as the Greeks are. 

Right now, the Euro has lost more value in a day than the missed payment. What about next week? What, again, of the threat that Greece unites as Greeks, having the ability to feed themselves, a basically desirable economy, what of the threat to the Euro if they can handle this? 

You keep saying it's unconscionable how they've throw out a great deal and I'll take your word for it but I will point out that they don't seem to think so and, from there, I'm trying to understand the basic large scale hurdles they must address and food is #1 and it seems like a soluble problem. Next, it seems to me, is getting their old currency up and running and I was thinking about this the other day; when they switched, where'd all them drachma physically go? 

I just have a fondness of great moments and am pulling for someone to do something that is NOT a repeat of the the things they did to get in trouble in the first place. Greece in and of itself, seems to be a perfectly sustainable land. The US certainly was yet we chose to piss away our big chance.


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> EDIT: And to respond to other threads, wrt tourism - it is reportedly already being affected. Who wants to vacation in a nation not knowing to what degree social order might break down while they're there? And to get money out of an ATM you have to wait in line behind 30 Greeks trying to withdraw their daily $70. And I sure as heck wouldn't want to carry a lot of money around on me when so many locals are short on cash.



You under estimate the power of a deal to an American in my view.


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> Baby formula for their babies. Insulin for their diabetics. Gas for their cars. That kind of stuff. Greece imports essential stuff, which is okay if you can pay for it. Lots of nations trade for things they don't produce themselves, things they'd struggle to survive without. But they can't pay for stuff now. .



But they can pay for SOME stuff, yes? If I make baby formula, do I really want it backing up on my dock or maybe I am willing to discount it or even extend credit for a month or so? One of the huge weaknesses of our too big to fail world is that smart MBA's have refined the thing to a T and everything has to MOVE or the thing is going to run into serious problems. Gasoline, anything NEEDS to move or our highly efficient production and distribution channels get ####ed up, quick. What drug company wants it known they stopped shipping insulin? 

I'm just trying to flesh this thing out. Greece has a WONDERFUL opportunity here and if they fix their waste, fraud and abuse as a consequence it will be of THEIR choosing and not some German telling them what to do.  

So far, I am seeing Greece having a lot more to gain than lose and nothing BUT loss for the EU. You mention take the pain and cut them loose, well, Greece is still gonna have things to export, still want to import stuff and is still going to be desirable to go see. This is actually kinda exciting and I'd LOVE to see Too Big To Fail...fail. If only some. 

We are way too tied to thinking things MUST be the way they are AND that that is best which I don't believe at all. What if this is THE moment people start taking their lives back from multi national corporations that can only function by controlling our lives?


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## PeoplesElbow

Someone mentioned Greece raising taxes,  they don't really need to raise taxes but actually collect the taxes that they are owed.  

A big part of the problem is the Greek culture,  it is expected to cheat the government, bribe an official to get things done, and the tax system is more of an honor system than ours is.  Cheating on your taxes in Greece is just how you do it.  

http://boingboing.net/2010/05/04/satellite-photos-cat.html

http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-struggles-to-get-citizens-to-pay-their-taxes-1424867495

So should the taxpayer debts be written off also?


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## Larry Gude

PeoplesElbow said:


> Someone mentioned Greece raising taxes,  they don't really need to raise taxes but actually collect the taxes that they are owed.
> 
> A big part of the problem is the Greek culture,  it is expected to cheat the government, bribe an official to get things done, and the tax system is more of an honor system than ours is.  Cheating on your taxes in Greece is just how you do it.
> 
> http://boingboing.net/2010/05/04/satellite-photos-cat.html
> 
> http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-struggles-to-get-citizens-to-pay-their-taxes-1424867495
> 
> So should the taxpayer debts be written off also?



Of course.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Larry Gude said:


> Of course.



My point is eventually someone loses out,  would you feel the same way if you found out that a portion of your 401k was wiped out because it invested in Greek bonds?


----------



## Larry Gude

PeoplesElbow said:


> My point is eventually someone loses out,  would you feel the same way if you found out that a portion of your 401k was wiped out because it invested in Greek bonds?



Wouldn't I just get bailed out again as was done in '08?


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Larry Gude said:


> Wouldn't I just get bailed out again as was done in '08?



In this case no,  GM bondholders were the ones who lost out in 2008 that debt was "written off"


----------



## Larry Gude

PeoplesElbow said:


> In this case no,  GM bondholders were the ones who lost out in 2008 that debt was "written off"



I appreciate you are trying to make American sense of Greece using American reasoning but have we learned nothing these past 25 years about the real world aplication of the way we think other people ought run their business?


----------



## GURPS

Larry Gude said:


> Could??? You miss the auto bail outs? You miss TARP? Quantitative easing?
> 
> It's been going on in the US, non stop, from fall of '08 up to last fall, 6 full years of transferring about $1 trillion a year out of the economy and into Too Big To Fail.




WTF are you talking about Mr Gude
 .... I was referring to the US GOV confiscating a % of deposits in American Banks


----------



## GURPS

Larry Gude said:


> The ONLY solution to the Greek problem is to WIPE out their debt and lend them new money at higher rates. There IS business to be had with them. It just got out of balance and the people who were chasing profits by lending to them simply need to swallow the loss and get on with new business. They can pay SOMETHING. They just can't pay what is owed. So, that deal went bad. Time for a new deal.
> 
> It's that simple.





the Greeks needed to quit SPENDING so much money ... they cannot afford it


----------



## GURPS

Tilted said:


> Pensioners can't get their benefits, and pensioners make up 103.6% of the nation. And I can't stress the significance of this enough: Capital controls for a nation that relies heavily on imports for essential life resources. The import of that reality, for the plight of Greek people, is hard to overstate.






so we can expect the same or worse here, when the welfare state collapses in 25 - 50 yrs


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> ...
> 
> I just have a fondness of great moments and am pulling for someone to do something that is NOT a repeat of the the things they did to get in trouble in the first place. Greece in and of itself, seems to be a perfectly sustainable land. The US certainly was yet we chose to piss away our big chance.



Sorry, I'm a rude online discussion-er. Sometimes I just disappear. 

Anyway, I didn't want to quote everything you've said since I left last night, but I did want to quote this part. What I'm suggesting should be done (which I'm starting to get a sickening feeling won't be done) would be this - it would be not repeating the mistakes that we've long been making. It would be trying something fundamentally different. It would be not kicking the can down the road and thinking we could operate in unsustainable ways, but rather letting reality in and dealing with it - making the adjustments it requires or will ultimately require.

Also, I would submit that you are wrong about Greece being, in itself, a perfectly sustainable land. Perhaps the geography itself is, but as a nation right now - with the attitudes and expectations that Greeks collectively have - it is not. That's the point, something has to change to change their attitudes and expectations. As things are, Greece can't sustain itself. Not enough people are wiling to work enough. Their collective productivity can't support their collective lifestyle. Something has to change, unless the rest of the world is willing to continue financing the disparity.

Anyway... back to the main issue I wanted to respond to: What happens if Greece doesn't get a new deal and why they are, as I've said, ####ed in that event. I do thing there are some things you are missing here. I'll find some articles and/or video reports that might do a better job of painting the picture. But I'd likely to quickly make a few points (perhaps again).

I think you are thinking of the Greek economy too statically. They produce this, they have this income, they have this money, etcetera. So much of how modern economies work is dependent on dynamics. How much wealth there is, how much money there is to be spent, these things depend on the constant motion of money - they depend on ongoing activity. When economic activity starts to slow down, money in effect disappears - not base money, but as I refer to it transactional money, which is what modern economies are mostly built on. If money stops changing hands, or if its changing of hands slows considerably, then some of it is meaningfully lost - the wealth it creates and the value it represents is lost. I'm sure you intuitively understand that notion.

Yes, Greeks still have money to spend. In theory. Some of them, their non-poor, have money in accounts. But the banks are closed. And those that have money can only withdraw small-ish amounts from ATMs. They can't do transactions. (I'm making general statements which aren't in all cases true of course, but the effect of them being true in many cases remains.) It doesn't much matter if I, in theory, have money in an account somewhere that I could use to pay someone for a gasoline delivery or carton of baby formula - if I can't do a money transaction with it, I effectively don't have it. And there are capital controls in place, it isn't easy to send money out of the country whether you have it in an account or not. The situation is somewhat like we would have faced here had those drastic steps not been taken to infuse liquidity into our financial system. We would have had money in accounts, in theory we - the general populace - were fine. But the banks wouldn't have had the money to give to us or to do transactions for us. You wouldn't have been able to pay your employees because... well, because there wouldn't have been any money to. When you said to your bank, I've got this much in my account give this much to that guy over there, the bank would have just shrugged its shoulders. Sorry, can't. I know what your bank statement says, but there's no money.

Anyway, no some of the ATMs are running out of physical currency. Even what you are allowed to withdraw, you can't withdraw. People can't use their credit cards because people don't know if they can trust the banks. Tourists can't use credit cards. Cash is king and it is disappearing - e.g., because it is being hoarded or moved out of the country. Commerce isn't getting done. Businesses in Athens are reporting they haven't had customers - or have had only a tiny portion of normal customer traffic - for a week. Essentials, yeah, people are still buying them to the extent they're able to. But other stuff - the stuff that drives economies, that business isn't getting done. The economy is grinding to a halt, there is in effect less money because there's less economic activity.

I heard a Greek guy last night report to Michelle Caruso-Cabrera that last year at this time they were seeing 120,000 reservations per day. Now they are seeing 75,000 reservations per day. The tourist industry is crashing.

They have supplies of course, and depending on what they are they'll last a week or a month or whatever. But they will get used up at some point, and the inflow system isn't functioning as it should. Again, yes, in theory some still have money. But without a functioning bank system, that doesn't matter all that much. The Greek bank system was only functioning because the ECB was giving it money to function with, e.g., to cover withdrawals. That's stopped. The ECB isn't allowed to give it any more money because there is no debt deal in place and because Greece defaulted (or, as they put it, is in arrears as of) last Tuesday.

This is how economies die, or at least how they seize up. Economic activity stops happening, money stops moving, which causes it to effectively dry up, which stresses the banking system and makes economic activity even harder. People hoard what cash there is or use what they have on essentials. The whole thing is a self-perpetuating cycle. And Greece was already in bad shape, even before its default this week and the banks closing and the capital controls and their rejection of the debt deals. They already had 25% unemployment (based on pretty low labor force participation to begin with) and there economy had already contracted 20 or 30 percent (I'd have to look it up to be more exact) over the last 5 years or however long it's been. They were already in a major depression. Instead of digging in and working to get themselves out of it, they've chosen to say #### it and deny that things were that bad - they want to act like they're in the middle of the housing bubble (warning: slight exaggeration).

Their only hope is to get a new debt deal. Otherwise, they are cut off and for them that means trouble. They are not, at this point in time, positioned to take care of themselves. They need help from the rest of the world. Can they remake themselves to be able to support themselves? Sure, that's possible. But that's much the point, they refuse to do that - they refuse to move meaningfully in that direction. They don't want to accept having to work past their 35th birthday or before their 30th.

This will be very ugly very soon if they don't get a new deal. There's no way to get the engine running otherwise, there's no way out of the cash problem they now have - no way for the banking system to start functioning again, no way to facilitate transactions on a sufficient scale. They can't print money to inject liquidity into their banks. They need the ECB for that. And they've just told the ECB, and other interested parties, to go #### themselves.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> S  as I've said, ####ed in that event. I do thing there are some things you are missing here. I'll find some articles and/or video reports that might do a better job of painting the picture. But I'd likely to quickly make a few points (perhaps again). .



Then, truly, it is simply a matter of creditors holding on for a few days or weeks and they'll have Greece at their mercy and everyone will get back in line, shut up and do as the money tells them. 

Or...maybe they figure it out, come together and break that bond.


----------



## GURPS

Larry Gude said:


> Greece has a WONDERFUL opportunity here and if they fix their waste, fraud and abuse as a consequence it will be of THEIR choosing and not some German telling them what to do.




and the Greeks refuse to .... that is why were are here today


----------



## Tilted

Larry - Here are some articles to help start to paint the picture. Keep in mind these are from before the no vote, which will make things worse (again, unless they can get a new deal from creditors). I would correct something said in one of these articles: It suggests the capital controls put restrictions on the cash that tourists can withdraw from ATMs. I don't think that's true, foreigners are allowed to withdraw as much as their banks' policies will allow them to. But, if there's no cash in the ATM, that doesn't much matter.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/07/greeces-economy-under-capital-controls

http://rt.com/business/271534-greek-capital-control-hits/

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2034a0e6-20c7-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html#axzz3f7KYYrWl

EDIT: To add...

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000393206&play=1

That video is from last Wednesday, the iceberg to which he refers has been coming into better view since.


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Then, truly, it is simply a matter of creditors holding on for a few days or weeks and they'll have Greece at their mercy and everyone will get back in line, shut up and do as the money tells them.
> 
> Or...maybe they figure it out, come together and break that bond.



Yeah, but part of my point is that the interests of the remaining big creditors aren't necessarily the same as the interests of everyone else - i.e., of European economies or the global economy. Whereas most (outside of Greece) might be better off to just let Greece do this to itself, certain creditors might be better off bending over backwards in hopes of getting something out of Greece in the future - some return on the debt they hold.


----------



## kwillia

Larry Gude said:


> Then, truly, it is simply a matter of creditors holding on for a few days or weeks and they'll have Greece at their mercy and everyone will get back in line, shut up and do as the money tells them.
> 
> Or...maybe they figure it out, come together and break that bond.


Larry, your approach makes no logical sense. If we simply forgive their debt and not expect and enforce immediate financial frugality they are going to immediately begin racking up debt again... are you saying the rest of Europe should simply wash, rinse and repeat on the backs of their taxpayers every few years?


----------



## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> Or...maybe they figure it out, come together and break that bond.



The Greek people just resoundingly rejected the idea of any cuts in their amazingly generous social gravy train. Just yesterday, Larry.


----------



## Larry Gude

kwillia said:


> Larry, your approach makes no logical sense. If we simply forgive their debt and not expect and enforce immediate financial frugality they are going to immediately begin racking up debt again... are you saying the rest of Europe should simply wash, rinse and repeat on the backs of their taxpayers every few years?



No. I wrote what I wrote and I ain't gonna write it no more. 

So, we'll just do it again; bail out the big banks, the tax payers will STILL get hosed for it and no repayment. In the meantime, the value of the taxpayers euro's are falling and their day to day costs will go up so, they lose/lose. As long as the banks win, we're all happy, yes? 

:shrug:


----------



## kwillia

Larry Gude said:


> No. I wrote what I wrote and I ain't gonna write it no more.
> 
> So, we'll just do it again; bail out the big banks, the tax payers will STILL get hosed for it and no repayment. In the meantime, the value of the taxpayers euro's are falling and their day to day costs will go up so, they lose/lose. As long as the banks win, we're all happy, yes?
> 
> :shrug:


I read what you wrote and my post was what you stated at it's very simplistic nature. You expect banks to make loans to a country that continues to spend so far beyond their means that cannot make payment on their loans and by simply wiping the slate clean and allowing Greece to start it's debt all over again you are saying the other countries just need to accept that Greece is their "special son" who needs to be allowed to just sit on the couch and play video games all day while they keep him in his self-righteous comforts.


----------



## Larry Gude

kwillia said:


> I read what you wrote and my post was what you stated at it's very simplistic nature. You expect banks to make loans to a country that continues to spend so far beyond their means that cannot make payment on their loans and by simply wiping the slate clean and allowing Greece to start it's debt all over again you are saying the other countries just need to accept that Greece is their "special son" who needs to be allowed to just sit on the couch and play video games all day while they keep him in his self-righteous comforts.



Nope.


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> No. I wrote what I wrote and I ain't gonna write it no more.
> 
> So, we'll just do it again; bail out the big banks, the tax payers will STILL get hosed for it and no repayment. In the meantime, the value of the taxpayers euro's are falling and their day to day costs will go up so, they lose/lose. As long as the banks win, we're all happy, yes?
> 
> :shrug:



I'm not sure where you're getting the idea that we're talking about bailing out the big banks. With what I'm suggesting, those that hold Greek debt get screwed. And even if they do get paid back, that isn't in any fair sense bailing them out. It's just them getting paid back what they loaned, which is the expectation when you loan money. (I'll resist for now the temptation to address that notion - of bailing out the big banks - with regard to what happened here 6 or 7 years ago.)

Anyway, I'm talking about doing something different, not doing the same thing again. Holding the line against Greece represents doing something fundamentally different. It represents the hope of a new day, a day in which people make decisions and take actions as though reality matters - as though they can't live their entire lives in a reality-defying, though delusion-protected,  state, as though the laws of nature might eventually catch up with and subdue some of the premises on which society chooses to build itself on.

I would submit that, when it comes to Greece in particular, the fundamental problem is that collectively they don't want to do as much work as is needed to support the lifestyle that they collectively want to live (or expect to live or do live or whatever). If you accept that posit, then... what does wiping the debt slate clean and moving forward do to address that problem? Is it somehow going to lead to that problem being fixed? Or, if not, does the rest of the world just go on paying Greece's way in perpetuity? How do you see your solution playing out?

If you don't accept that posit, I suppose we'll have to take the conversation in a different direction.


----------



## Larry Gude

kwillia said:


> ...just need to accept that Greece is their "special son" who needs to be allowed to just sit on the couch and play video games all day while they keep him in his self-righteous comforts.



Why do you think the EU/Greece deal, with all those nations, all those governments, all those long histories and relationships is remotely the same as some kid on moms sofa? Do you honestly feel that the EU is fair and only Greece is being lazy? Do you honestly think there's no manipulation, no shady deals, no tilting of the playing field, that all those nations can and should function as one? You sincerely see relations between these countries as parent and child? 

Have at it. Make 'em pay. Force them. Kick them out. Whatever it takes to protect our Too Big To Fail world. Everyone else is with you; Greece is the problem. Simple. Black and white. 
Let me know how it works out. :shrug:


----------



## kwillia

Tilted said:


> I'm not sure where you're getting the idea that we're talking about bailing out the big banks. With what I'm suggesting, those that hold Greek debt get screwed. And even if they do get paid back, that isn't in any fair sense bailing them out. It's just them getting paid back what they loaned, which is the expectation when you loan money. (I'll resist for now the temptation to address that notion - of bailing out the big banks - with regard to what happened here 6 or 7 years ago.)
> 
> Anyway, I'm talking about doing something different, not doing the same thing again. Holding the line against Greece represents doing something fundamentally different. It represents the hope of a new day, a day in which people make decisions and take actions as though reality matters - as though they can't live their entire lives in a reality-defying, though delusion-protected,  state, as though the laws of nature might eventually catch up with and subdue some of the premises on which society chooses to build itself on.
> 
> I would submit that, when it comes to Greece in particular, the fundamental problem is that collectively they don't want to do as much work as is needed to support the lifestyle that they collectively want to live (or expect to live or do live or whatever). If you accept that posit, then... what does wiping the debt slate clean and moving forward do to address that problem? Is it somehow going to lead to that problem being fixed? Or, if not, does the rest of the world just go on paying Greece's way in perpetuity? How do you see your solution playing out?
> 
> If you don't accept that posit, I suppose we'll have to take the conversation in a different direction.


Well said. As was pointed out by Larry, Greece is a country of means and therefore should be governing to sustain itself within its means rather than expect other countries to continuously provide them funds to live so far above their means and then not be expected to pay them back time and time again.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> Anyway, I'm talking about doing something different, not doing the same thing again. Holding the line against Greece represents doing something fundamentally different. It represents the hope of a new day, a day in which people make decisions and take actions as though reality matters - as though they can't live their entire lives in a reality-defying, though delusion-protected,  state, as though the laws of nature might eventually catch up with and subdue some of the premises on which society chooses to build itself on.
> 
> I would submit that, when it comes to Greece in particular, the fundamental problem is that collectively they don't want to do as much work as is needed to support the lifestyle that they collectively want to live (or expect to live or do live or whatever). If you accept that posit, then... what does wiping the debt slate clean and moving forward do to address that problem? Is it somehow going to lead to that problem being fixed? Or, if not, does the rest of the world just go on paying Greece's way in perpetuity? How do you see your solution playing out?
> 
> If you don't accept that posit, I suppose we'll have to take the conversation in a different direction.



Your position is that that will work, correct? Mine is that it won't. If you are right, it will be a matter of days before you're proven correct; Greece is screwed and MUST come begging back for a deal OR face dire problems that will only force them back when their threshold for pain is reached, correct? 

I've never been a fan of the EU and I think it a fairly easy thing to do to find people who predicted this years ago. It is simply silly to put Germany and Greece on a level playing field and expect Greece to compete fairly well over time. Look at it as a golf match and Greece has been given strokes from day one to get the thing to sort of work. My sense is that you're seeking rational behavior from the weakest link in an enormous Rube Goldberg contraption where rational and reasonable would have meant it never happened. I always assumed national pride would be a fatal problem for the thing at some time and it's been a hoot watching the UK get their own special rules all this time to keep them on board. 

It may be that the truly amazing thing here is that it's held together this long. However, in my view, that's only been because of all sorts of machinations and manipulations. Greece will fix what they have to if it is their idea and maybe someone can manipulate them into thinking it is and it will be addressed. Other than that, knowing some Greeks personally, their pride, their national instincts, their sense of unity, man, you wanna talk stubborn. Maybe you're right. Maybe they just need to have their feet held to the fire. 

In the mean time, a lot of wealth is disappearing over a sound principle in an unsound contraption; the EU.   :shrug:


----------



## Larry Gude

kwillia said:


> Well said. As was pointed out by Larry, Greece is a country of means and therefore should be governing to sustain itself within its means rather than expect other countries to continuously provide them funds to live so far above their means and then not be expected to pay them back time and time again.



Cut 'em off. Keep them cut off until they submit. Have at it. :shrug:


----------



## Larry Gude

Gotta go back out. Be back this evening. Should be an interesting day based on Tilted's observation of how ####ed they are. 

Good conversation, people. Take notes. This is where we're headed.


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Your position is that that will work, correct? Mine is that it won't. If you are right, it will be a matter of days before you're proven correct; Greece is screwed and MUST come begging back for a deal OR face dire problems that will only force them back when their threshold for pain is reached, correct?
> 
> I've never been a fan of the EU and I think it a fairly easy thing to do to find people who predicted this years ago. It is simply silly to put Germany and Greece on a level playing field and expect Greece to compete fairly well over time. Look at it as a golf match and Greece has been given strokes from day one to get the thing to sort of work. My sense is that you're seeking rational behavior from the weakest link in an enormous Rube Goldberg contraption where rational and reasonable would have meant it never happened. I always assumed national pride would be a fatal problem for the thing at some time and it's been a hoot watching the UK get their own special rules all this time to keep them on board.
> 
> It may be that the truly amazing thing here is that it's held together this long. However, in my view, that's only been because of all sorts of machinations and manipulations. Greece will fix what they have to if it is their idea and maybe someone can manipulate them into thinking it is and it will be addressed. Other than that, knowing some Greeks personally, their pride, their national instincts, their sense of unity, man, you wanna talk stubborn. Maybe you're right. Maybe they just need to have their feet held to the fire.
> 
> In the mean time, a lot of wealth is disappearing over a sound principle in an unsound contraption; the EU.   :shrug:



I've gotta run, but I'll pick this back up later.

But, to be clear again, I am not saying that will work as in it will force Greece back for a deal. (Note: They may want a deal and realize they should have taken the deal, but I think it may well be too late at that point - my point was never that what I suggest would lead to a deal to get Greece's creditors paid.) I'm saying it will be better for the global economy, and for most of Europe, to just move on - to let Greece fend for itself. What I'm talking about is letting Greece continue to default, but in light of their egregious attitude and defiance to stop supporting them financially. Creditors lose, they don't get their money back. Europe moves on, no longer supporting Greece. Greece hits bottom and either fades into history or makes dramatic changes. I can wake up in the morning and not have to listen to this bull#### that should have long ago been put behind us, I can focus on financial stuff that should matter for American markets. I can stop caring what happens in that ####### country (I love Greece, btw, and its history; but as a nation it's made itself into an ass of late). Global economies can stop being held hostage by it.


----------



## GURPS

Tilted said:


> Greece hits bottom and either fades into history or makes dramatic changes.



IMHO ... WAR is coming back to Europe ... next 25 yrs


----------



## Larry Gude

GURPS said:


> IMHO ... WAR is coming back to Europe ... next 25 yrs



That's certainly possible and historically probable. However, technology, the interconnectedness of economies, the liberalization of societies, it's gonna be pretty tough to get a war going. People don't wanna fight anymore and the demographics aren't there to support it if they did. 

The issue was and is Islam; they're having lots of babies. They've got the bodies to spare.


----------



## GURPS

Larry Gude said:


> However, technology, the interconnectedness of economies, the liberalization of societies, it's gonna be pretty tough to get a war going. People don't wanna fight anymore and the demographics aren't there to support it if they did.




Explain Russia then ? or are they separate from the EU discussion in your opinion ?
I hear Neo Nazi's are on the rise in Europe again 

.... I am sure the Greeks are: FU Germany and the EU you ain't the boss of us 
... ok I am sure Greece is not going to invade Germany ...


but as economies collapse ... what your neighbor has suddenly looks worth the risk 

maybe it will just be anarchy


----------



## Tilted

Greek 2-year bonds (although they aren't being openly traded now) are at about a 50% yield while 10-years are at about 18%. That means the former are getting less than 50 cents on the dollar and the latter are getting less than 35 cents.

Anyway, banks are set to remain closed for at least a couple more days. I heard one CEO say that his employees are asking him not to pay them, to just keep their pay for now rather than depositing it in their accounts. That's becuase (1) they don't know if they'd be able to withdraw it anyway and (2) they're worried that if the situation with banks continues to deteriorate there will be a so-called bail-in. That's where part of people's bank account balances basically get stolen - like 20 or 30 percent over a certain balance gets forfeited so that the banks remain solvent. And the ECB took action yesterday that won't help on that front, they increased the discount they are taking on collateral put up by Greek banks - meaning those banks could have even less money available.

So they voted no and now they may face a bail-in, where parts of their balances are just taken. But then, I suspect most of the people that had balances to be taken voted yes rather than no. It was probably the people that felt they had nothing to lose that tended to vote no. I don't think they fully appreciated what it might mean to truly have nothing to lose, that things could get worse for them.

Yesterday I heard what may be the most apropos use of the drink the Kool-Aid meme that I've heard in a long time. Talking about how government leaders had encouraged the people to vote no, promising that if they did those leaders would get a new, much better, deal within 48 hours and get the banks back open, Stathis Kalyvas said "they really bought that message, they drank the Kool Aid."

I guess we'll soon see whether he was right, whether the rest of Europe holds firm.


----------



## Gilligan

GURPS said:


> Explain Russia then ? or are they separate from the EU discussion in your opinion ?
> I hear Neo Nazi's are on the rise in Europe again
> 
> .... I am sure the Greeks are: FU Germany and the EU you ain't the boss of us
> ... ok I am sure Greece is not going to invade Germany ...
> 
> 
> but as economies collapse ... what your neighbor has suddenly looks worth the risk
> 
> maybe it will just be anarchy




And then there is China....

http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/chinese-chaos-worse-than-greece/story-fnu2pycd-1227430761673


----------



## Gilligan

Another view on Greece.

http://thefederalist.com/2015/07/07/let-greece-declare-bankruptcy/


----------



## GURPS

Gilligan said:


> Another view on Greece.



 

great article


----------



## Hodr

Tilted said:


> A nation of 11 million plus people can't be supported by 155 people working, especially when only 80 of those people are doing something other than make-work type stuff. They think they should be able to live 75 years while only working for 2 of them, and only working 15 hours a week when they do. Hopefully they're about to get a long overdue introduction to reality, how unpleasant an introduction it will be is up to them. It sure seems like they want it to be as nasty an introduction as it can be. So be it. Please, please, please to their creditors: They're bound and determined to dig their own grave, for all ours sake let them go ahead and jump into it so that we can begin to put this silliness behind us. It's time the world, and the rest of Europe in particular, tells the Greek people to go #### themselves.



Tilted, man I thought you were better informed than this.  I agree with you on the course of action they should have taken, and with how the international community and the banks should deal with Greece, but you don't have to resort to rampant hyperbole to get the point across.

First, Greeks work longer hours than most (possibly all) other European nations.  They are much less productive (GDP wise) because a great deal of the work is busy-work or related to civil/social services (police and fire being big), but they aren't working only 15 hours a week.

Second, their average retirement age is 61.7. Higher than those supposedly model economies they keep being compared to, Germany and France.  They have a lower minimum retirement age of 53, but almost no one makes use of that retirement age because the pension received is a pittance.

And they actually have quite high taxes, they just allow rampant tax evasion and cheating to occur.

The real answer is for them to fix the issues with their taxes (actually collect the damn money owed), and to try and reduce the amount of redundant civil work while investing in actual productive activities.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> Yesterday I heard what may be the most apropos use of the drink the Kool-Aid meme that I've heard in a long time. Talking about how government leaders had encouraged the people to vote no, promising that if they did those leaders would get a new, much better, deal within 48 hours and get the banks back open, Stathis Kalyvas said "they really bought that message, they drank the Kool Aid."
> 
> I guess we'll soon see whether he was right, whether the rest of Europe holds firm.




Right but you know the Kewl Aid thing is about group suicide, yes? As such, that's not what Greece is facing. If they'll just come together, they can change the world! For the more better!


----------



## Gilligan

> Larry Gude;5548721If they'll just come together.....




They did that already.


----------



## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> Another view on Greece.
> 
> http://thefederalist.com/2015/07/07/let-greece-declare-bankruptcy/



Now we're talking!! 

 "But the bottom line is this: Greece is bankrupt and should be allowed to declare bankruptcy. People and countries go bankrupt. Government leaders break promises. Creditors who foolishly lent to an insolvent nation should deal with those repercussions."


----------



## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> They did that already.



EDIT: STAY together.


----------



## Tilted

Hodr said:


> Tilted, man I thought you were better informed than this.  I agree with you on the course of action they should have taken, and with how the international community and the banks should deal with Greece, but you don't have to resort to rampant hyperbole to get the point across.
> 
> First, Greeks work longer hours than most (possibly all) other European nations.  They are much less productive (GDP wise) because a great deal of the work is busy-work or related to civil/social services (police and fire being big), but they aren't working only 15 hours a week.
> 
> Second, their average retirement age is 61.7. Higher than those supposedly model economies they keep being compared to, Germany and France.  They have a lower minimum retirement age of 53, but almost no one makes use of that retirement age because the pension received is a pittance.
> 
> And they actually have quite high taxes, they just allow rampant tax evasion and cheating to occur.
> 
> The real answer is for them to fix the issues with their taxes (actually collect the damn money owed), and to try and reduce the amount of redundant civil work while investing in actual productive activities.



Of course I was using hyperbole, I was intentionally making my hyperbole so hyperbolic that there'd be no doubt that that was what I was doing. Also, that so much of what they do is make-work - or busy-work as you might call it - is one of the points I've been making. And one of the big problems is that so little of the population does work, and of those that do work too high a portion of them work for the government. The bottom line is that, collectively, they aren't as productive as they need to be to support the collective lifestyle they want. So that lifestyle is financed by others. That's the point I've made over and over, sometimes quite flippantly, yes. I. If that's somehow wrong, I'm sorry.

They are unable to pay back money that they owe. That's their issue, not a problem made by others. So whatever they have to do to pay that money back - or to get others to agree to give them more time to pay it back, and further aid in the meantime - they should do. That means being collectively more productive - more people working, working to later ages, working more hours, less of them doing make-work - and collectively enjoying a lesser lifestyle. Being indignant about being asked to do such things makes them, collectively, an ass. Sure, the austerity they are being asked to implement will further hurt their economy, and make it weaker well into the future. But that's the bed they made for themselves. They danced the tune now they should pay the piper. If they don't like the terms they're being offered, then okay - just pay the money they owe. But they can't, so any help they are offered - any adjustments to the terms of their debts - should be gratefully welcomed. Or they can just screw themselves even worse like they have, with their only hope now being for the rest of Europe to cave to their ingratitude.

I hope you don't think I really thought - or meant to assert - that the typical Greek worker (that actually does work) works only 15 hours a week. Or that there were only 155 people working in the whole country? Like I said, I made sure that it was clear I was being hyperbolic.

As for pension payments, they represent the biggest part of Greece's economy other than tourism - something like 20% of it. (I can try to find a more precise portion for you if you'd like it, but that's close enough for my point). So a fair number of Greeks are collecting pensions, are retired.


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Right but you know the Kewl Aid thing is about group suicide, yes? As such, that's not what Greece is facing. If they'll just come together, they can change the world! For the more better!



Yeah, that's why I thought the usage there might be apropos.

And how is refusing to be accountable for your actions, and refusing to make changes that experience has demonstrated need to be made, going to make for a better world?


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Now we're talking!!
> 
> "But the bottom line is this: Greece is bankrupt and should be allowed to declare bankruptcy. People and countries go bankrupt. Government leaders break promises. Creditors who foolishly lent to an insolvent nation should deal with those repercussions."




Europe should let them, in essence, declare bankruptcy. It just shouldn't go back to business as usual with them, especially since they are unwilling to be realistic with regard to their work product and lifestyle.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> Europe should let them, in essence, declare bankruptcy. It just shouldn't go back to business as usual with them, especially since they are unwilling to be realistic with regard to their work product and lifestyle.



They'll be willing when it is their ideas. I would LOVE to see them uncouple from the global too big to fail model and for that model to lose all leverage and control over someone and then we'll just see what we see. We're accepting a presumption; that Greece isn't productive enough. Enough for whom? Based on what?  Greece will figure it out if they have to. If not, Too Big To Fail wins again.


----------



## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> Greece will figure it out if they have to.



So you are counting on Greece being practically unique in the annals of modern history..a history that is otherwise jam packed full of example states that could never "figure it out".  mmmkay...

I've already reached the conclusion that the same process that has destroyed Greece has already passed the point of no return right here in the US.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> Yeah, that's why I thought the usage there might be apropos.
> 
> And how is refusing to be accountable for your actions, and refusing to make changes that experience has demonstrated need to be made, going to make for a better world?



I reject the premise that we had a better world before. Too Big To Fail has distorted the hell out of everything and most people see it as those most responsible for the problems as being rewarded for it and everyone else gets the bill and responsibilities. Look at us. How many people you hear the last 6 years complain that QE healed their 401ks...and that it was wrong? Greeks, us, who should really have to pay for it? And why? What, really, makes it so that Greece should have to pay for anything? How come they don't get bailed out as much as it takes?


----------



## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> So you are counting on Greece being practically unique in the annals of modern history..a history that is otherwise jam packed full of example states that could never "figure it out".  mmmkay... .



If NO ONE lends them any more money, they have no choice. Right? 

But that won't happen because the Goldman's of the world will see opportunity, buy off the pols necessary, go in, make another killing, leave, and so it goes. 

This could be a great moment of change away from the Too Big To Fail model. or, we could just keep what we've been doing?


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> Yeah, that's why I thought the usage there might be apropos. ?



You see nothing good for Greece possibly coming from the kewl aid of leaving the EU, leaving them to eat the losses?


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> They'll be willing when it is their ideas. I would LOVE to see them uncouple from the global too big to fail model and for that model to lose all leverage and control over someone and then we'll just see what we see. We're accepting a presumption; that Greece isn't productive enough. Enough for whom? Based on what?  Greece will figure it out if they have to. If not, Too Big To Fail wins again.



Of course they will figure it out, they will have to. That's the point of what some of us are arguing for. If they have to fend for themselves, they will fend for themselves. It will be painful as #### for a while, but they'll have no choice but to change their ways. That's what we're advocating for rather than just kicking the can down the road and facilitating - encouraging - more of the same irresponsible behavior.

What I'm suggesting is more like the opposite of what we did here (not in particulars, as the issues were somewhat different, but in big picture philosophy). What you're suggesting is more of the same, big picture philosophy-wise.

A nation can't go on forever with too small a portion of its people working, and too small a portion doing productive work or working hard (as Hodr accurately suggests that some of them do). It can't go on importing so much of its life necessities without finding a way to produce enough of value to export. It can't do those things unless it either accepts a lower standard of living or has someone to finance the imbalance. That's reality. The Greek people, as a whole, aren't going to change to conform to reality unless they have to, they've made that pretty clear now. So leave them be and let them figure it out for themselves, let them learn basic life lessons the hard way. That seems to be what it's going to take.

And then you have other nations in Europe in similar situations. They surely don't need to see evidence that you can go on defying reality indefinitely. It may turn out that they have to learn basic life lessons the hard way as well, but it's all but certain they'll have to learn them that way - while doing more damage to Europe and the world's economies in the process - if the rest of Europe caves in to Greece's... I don't even know what to call it anymore, anything that would do Greece's collective attitude justice would exceed my daily profanity limitation.


----------



## stgislander

I'm wondering if Dr. TJ Krugman's self-imposed limit of one comment per thread is making her head explode right about now.


----------



## Larry Gude

stgislander said:


> I'm wondering if Dr. TJ Krugman's  .



 


Krugman is a hoot. He loves going on and on about how everyone was wrong about the Stimulus etc and completely leaves out QE, a full 6% annual boost to the economy for how many years?


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> You see nothing good for Greece possibly coming from the kewl aid of leaving the EU, leaving them to eat the losses?



In the long run? Sure. But in the meantime, without a new deal and continuing help, they'd be screwed. They'll be much worse off than they would have had had they accepted the last deal.

Just so we're clear, though I hope I've already been fairly clear on this - I'm hoping they do leave the EU, either they get kicked out (more likely) or decide they want to leave. I hope that because I think it will be better for the global economy and, to some extent, our own economy. In the long run it'll probably be better for Greece as well, but as I'm no hater I'm okay with that. 

When it comes to the EU more generally: Unified monetary policy coupled with disjointed fiscal policy is a recipe for disaster, or at least a big, unfixable mess.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> In the long run? Sure. But in the meantime, without a new deal and continuing help, they'd be screwed. They'll be much worse off than they would have had had they accepted the last deal.
> 
> Just so we're clear, though I hope I've already been fairly clear on this - I'm hoping they do leave the EU, either they get kicked out (more likely) or decide they want to leave. I hope that because I think it will be better for the global economy and, to some extent, our own economy. In the long run it'll probably be better for Greece as well, but as I'm no hater I'm okay with that.
> 
> When it comes to the EU more generally: Unified monetary policy coupled with disjointed fiscal policy is a recipe for disaster, or at least a big, unfixable mess.



Do you think Greece out, on their own or with help, will be the first domino and end the EU? Do you think it should?


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> *They'll be willing when it is their ideas.* I would LOVE to see them uncouple from the global too big to fail model and for that model to lose all leverage and control over someone and then we'll just see what we see. We're accepting a presumption; that Greece isn't productive enough. Enough for whom? Based on what?  Greece will figure it out if they have to. If not, Too Big To Fail wins again.



I wanted to return to this. I've heard some people making the point that the Greek people voted with their pride not their pockets. I think that's DOB right. It's about not being told what to do, which is fine. But now you have to pay the price for that pride (I hope, meaning I hope Europe doesn't cave). But the only reason you were in a position to possibly have to sacrifice your pride for your pocket, to have to let others tell you what to do, is because of how you had yourself behaved and the bed you had made for yourself.

There's another subtext that I need to look into. I heard someone talking about the origin of the OXI (meaning no) meme that political leaders used to appeal to the emotions of the Greek people. They said that it links back to World War II when the Greeks stood up to Germany (or was it Italy) and refused to surrender. They celebrated their successful defiance chanting OXI!, or so the story goes according to this person I heard talking about it. So Greek leaders made that emotional connection to fire up Greeks and empower their sense of defiance. I'm gonna have to read a little about that history, but the story makes sense to me.


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Do you think Greece out, on their own or with help, will be the first domino and end the EU? Do you think it should?



No, not anytime soon. It may lead to some other nations leaving; but then again, seeing what Greece goes through might encourage some of them to be more accepting of whatever the rest of the EU asks of them. That door could swing either way, depending on how much of a headache Greece leaving caused for the rest of the EU. But I would expect the stronger members of the EU to stay together for the foreseeable future.

Should it? Who is to say? I think as a matter of long-term fiscal propriety, the EU is a mistake. It's in that tweener zone (in terms of the degree of unification between member nations) which, more often than not, means more of the bad from both ends of the spectrum than the good from both ends. More often than not, when things try to be a little of this and a little of that, they end up being nothing worth a ####. There are of course exceptions.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> I wanted to return to this. I've heard some people making the point that the Greek people voted with their pride not their pockets. I think that's DOB right. It's about not being told what to do, which is fine. But now you have to pay the price for that pride  .



See, but that is THE issue. It's one thing if I choose to pick cotton every single day and my choices in life mad it so. It is quite another if I'm held there by you and, in MY view, the Too Big To Fail model is seen as, if not force, then certainly coercion and, yeah, getting coerced is supposed to be our own fault but if I see you get out of serving your master, getting away with your mistakes, Too Big To Fail, you can damn well bet it's gonna make me have a problem with it. Too Big To Fail's greatest weakness is that there is NO sense of shared sacrifice, no sense of being in it together. 

Looked at another way, if you're my master yet you're out their toiling with me every day and suffering the same work, that's a whole other issue, too. 

Pride's not always a bad thing.


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> See, but that is THE issue. It's one thing if I choose to pick cotton every single day and my choices in life mad it so. It is quite another if I'm held there by you and, in MY view, the Too Big To Fail model is seen as, if not force, then certainly coercion and, yeah, getting coerced is supposed to be our own fault but if I see you get out of serving your master, getting away with your mistakes, Too Big To Fail, you can damn well bet it's gonna make me have a problem with it. Too Big To Fail's greatest weakness is that there is NO sense of shared sacrifice, no sense of being in it together.
> 
> Looked at another way, if you're my master yet you're out their toiling with me every day and suffering the same work, that's a whole other issue, too.
> 
> Pride's not always a bad thing.



Certainly not, pride can be a great thing - so long as we have what it takes, self-awareness and confidence mostly, to make it our servant rather than let it be our master. If you're secure enough, it will settle for being the former; if you're insecure, it will demand to be the latter.

Beyond that, I think you may be seeing too much similarity between Greece's situation and what happened here with Too Big To Fail. The Greeks made their own bed, others are just offering them ways out of their predicament -  by, e.g., continuing to give them financial assistance - albeit with substantial conditions. If Greece doesn't want to accept the conditions, so be it - but that doesn't make the offers of help, whatever conditions are attached to them, some bad things done to the poor Greeks. They're free to find their own way out (but if they were going to do that, they'd probably have been better off going that route from the onset of their crisis) - which may include telling their creditors to suck it.

So... Did you see what I said earlier about the possibility of a so-called bail-in, like what they had in Cyprus but possibly applying to accounts with smaller balances? Did that get your blood boiling?


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> So... Did you see what I said earlier about the possibility of a so-called bail-in, like what they had in Cyprus but possibly applying to accounts with smaller balances? Did that get your blood boiling?



Yes I saw and no, no blood boiling. My view on this is biased because I know some Greeks and they are different cats. If unity is needed here, it's them. If a mono-culture is the way to come together and deal with this, it's them. So, shared pain, unity. I'm not saying they will do it. I'm just thinking they're a pretty good bet.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Larry Gude said:


> They'll be willing when it is their ideas. I would LOVE to see them uncouple from the global too big to fail model and for that model to lose all leverage and control over someone and then we'll just see what we see. We're accepting a presumption; that Greece isn't productive enough. Enough for whom? Based on what?  Greece will figure it out if they have to. If not, Too Big To Fail wins again.



But aren't you saying Greece is too big to fail?


----------



## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> I know some Greeks and they are different cats. :



So do I. We've supported the build and operation of numerous Greek high-speed ferries over the last 25 years, serving routes to Italy as well as the many (drop dead gorgeous) Greek islands. "Those guys" are not the ones so dependent on the government for their survival.

Well..at least they weren't when I worked with them.


----------



## Larry Gude

PeoplesElbow said:


> But aren't you saying Greece is too big to fail?



Don't mean to be. In my argument they'd be fixing their problems their way.


----------



## PeoplesElbow

Larry Gude said:


> Don't mean to be. In my argument they'd be fixing their problems their way.



No they are not,  they are asking someone else for a temporary fix that will in time make the problem bigger.


----------



## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> Don't mean to be. In my argument they'd be fixing their problems their way.



I'm honestly amazed. All they a "doing" is trying to make everyone else pay for their ridiculously unsustainable gravy train. Pure and simple.


----------



## Larry Gude

Well I'm with tilted: cut em off.


----------



## Gilligan

PeoplesElbow said:


> No they are not,  they are asking someone else for a temporary fix that will in time make the problem bigger.



There has already been at least three or four years worth of those!!


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Yes I saw and no, no blood boiling. My view on this is biased because I know some Greeks and they are different cats. If unity is needed here, it's them. If a mono-culture is the way to come together and deal with this, it's them. So, shared pain, unity. I'm not saying they will do it. I'm just thinking they're a pretty good bet.



Sure, Greek people aren't bad by their nature. They aren't all lazy bums. I don't mean to suggest that they are. But as a nation they have become lazy and under-productive, they don't collectively put in enough work. You remind me of another point that's perhaps worth making, a lot of Greeks - ambitious and industrious people - have left Greece to make their way elsewhere. In part that's because of how hard it is to successfully do business there - because of, e.g., regulations and taxation. Some of the best among them have chosen to leave there, they need to create an environment where those kinds of people are encouraged to come back home and help build Greek industry.



Larry Gude said:


> Well I'm with tilted: cut em off.



Unfortunately, the rest of Europe has basically already caved.


----------



## RPMDAD

Here is a pm from one of my best friends who is Greek and lives in Greece this was from July during the last elections. He talks about their political parties in it, he inherited his fathers house who was into home construction, and his dad worked well into his 60's. He is an international kind of of high tech dude, and does a lot of his work in Southeast Asia is is on the road sometimes 2 - 3 weeks per month. I have also read posts from him, where there is no real love lost between Greece and Germany going back to World War II. I lived in Greece for 3 years, and love the country, the people and their history. I always thought it was a mistake when they joined the EU.  This is more of an observation on their political party's than on their total Govt. mismanagement .

 well Jim always in Greece is the left and the right wing, and it seems that the left finally won the elections this time.
I had to vote for them because in the past 5 years I have lost 1/2 of my salary in taxes. It is a good thing I own my house otherwise it would be coming back to the states for something.
We do have 7 different parties including the comunist party (it is almost like the one that won the elections but alot hard core communists) and on the other end we we have the extreme right wing that is the hitler followers and anti foreigner party.
####..... too much for a small country but I try to keep away from those MFs and drink my wine.
Hippei power, this is what I vote for.... peace love and understanding ..... and a little Irish clover so time goes by better (I wish).


----------



## Gilligan

Ha ha ha ha haaa!!   Some good karma...


http://freebeacon.com/blog/flashback-clinton-son-in-law-bet-big-on-greek-recovery/


----------



## Larry Gude

Smugly, I submit sound reason and impeccable logic; 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/business/economy/germanys-debt-history-echoed-in-greece.html?_r=0


----------



## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> Smugly, I submit sound reason and impeccable logic;
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/business/economy/germanys-debt-history-echoed-in-greece.html?_r=0



I hope you were being sarcastic.  "painfull auterity" my sorry arse....


----------



## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> I hope you were being sarcastic.  "painfull auterity" my sorry arse....



Dude, you read the thing? Writing off debt leads to growth. Not only does it make sense on paper, but what actually happens backs it up. "Painful' is subjective. And that's the whole point; Greece was never gonna be top dog in the EU and was always gonna be a candidate for being one of the problem children. So, glory be, what we got here? So, in the mean time, down turn, the big boys loan money to the sick kid so the big boys can get paid back and, the whole time, they all know they won't ever be able to handle the 'vig'.  

Write the #### off and let's get moving again. Or, keep on leaving the big banks in charge and hope for better results?


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Smugly, I submit sound reason and impeccable logic;
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/business/economy/germanys-debt-history-echoed-in-greece.html?_r=0



It is sound to some degree, though I'd say there's a relevant difference between war-incurred (meaning, winner-assigned) debt and systemic - because of how we run our nation and how we live our lives - debt.

But that's of little import when it comes to my position, because my argument has never been that the rest of Europe shouldn't give Greece some debt relief. It has been that the rest of Europe - in return for continuing to give Greece the financial aid it needs - should demand austerity from Greece, that that is reasonable, that Greeks need to come to grips with the reality that the problem is they don't do enough work, they aren't collectively productive enough, to support the collective lifestyle they want. They have to change, they have to not be so spoiled - so the rest of Europe has to stop indulging them and facilitating their disconnect from reality.

No doubt the austerity that the rest of Europe has demanded has made Greece's financial situation even worse. But that's not the rest of Europe's fault, that's Greece's fault and the fault of their previous policies and behavior. They caused the problem, and it was reasonable for Europe - when Greece kept asking for assistance - to say, you're gonna have to sacrifice your own well being to help pay us back and to demonstrate that you get it now, that you have to change in order to someday be able to pay your own way, that we don't owe you perpetual support and accommodation of your productivity - lifestyle imbalance.

The problem is, in response to the declining economic conditions brought on by the austerity that the rest of Europe demanded, Greece went and elected an even more socialist (and a more defiant) government - as though the problem was giving it to the rest of Europe rather than their own previous policies and behavior. They still didn't get it, and they very much need to get it or else it wouldn't matter how much of their debt was forgiven, they'd continue to create the same problems for themselves and need the same aid from others. They went back and doubled down on the failures of their past instead of identifying them as the root cause of their current pain.

You can fix the damage someone does to their car, through their incompetent driving, as often and for as long as you want - and pick up the dime yourself. Most humans are charitable by their nature I think, they want to help others. But at some point, that incompetent driver needs to get it through their head that they are an incompetent driver and that they need to make changes. Or else, repairs made at someone else's experience or not, they are going to continue to cause damage to their car - and someday they may do more damage than can be repaired or than someone else is willing to repair for them. Maybe the right thing to do, at some point, is to stop paying for their repairs and let them face the natural consequences of being a ####ty driver.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> It is sound to some degree, though I'd say there's a relevant difference between war-incurred (meaning, winner-assigned) debt and systemic - because of how we run our nation and how we live our lives - debt.
> 
> But that's of little import when it comes to my position, because my argument has never been that the rest of Europe shouldn't give Greece some debt relief. It has been that the rest of Europe - in return for continuing to give Greece the financial aid it needs - should demand austerity from Greece, that that is reasonable, that Greeks need to come to grips with the reality that the problem is they don't do enough work, they aren't collectively productive enough, to support the collective lifestyle they want. They have to change, they have to not be so spoiled - so the rest of Europe has to stop indulging them and facilitating their disconnect from reality. .



Just how do you propose to humiliate them and move this whole mess forward amicably?  Intellectually, you're clearly aware of the culpability of other parties to this mess and have said, clearly, you're happy for them to pay for their mistakes yet you keep coming back to this as though Greece is the primary problem here and they, in my view, are not. They were, are  and always will be one of the weaker partners in this thing and they were never gonna respond well to finger wagging and moral lecturing to their whorish ways from their john pals. :shrug:


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Dude, you read the thing? Writing off debt leads to growth. Not only does it make sense on paper, but what actually happens backs it up. "Painful' is subjective. And that's the whole point; Greece was never gonna be top dog in the EU and was always gonna be a candidate for being one of the problem children. So, glory be, what we got here? So, in the mean time, down turn, the big boys loan money to the sick kid so the big boys can get paid back and, the whole time, they all know they won't ever be able to handle the 'vig'.
> 
> Write the #### off and let's get moving again. Or, keep on leaving the big banks in charge and hope for better results?



See my post above as it makes my point more fully. But, yes, sometimes writing off debt leads to growth and, more to the point here, responsible behavior. But sometimes it does not. It depends in part on the nature of the debt, why it was incurred and why it isn't feasible or easy to pay it back. If it's systemic, because of how someone leads their life, just writing it off is more likely to exacerbate the core problem than lead to lasting positive results.

The core problem here isn't the debt that Greece currently has, it's the way that Greece as a whole conducts its affairs and how Greeks collectively live their lives. That's what needs fixing. If forgiving their debt would do that, then maybe other parties should consider it. I see no reason to think it would and lots of reason to be quite sure it wouldn't. The question, as it usually is, i: What is the core problem, and then how do we fix it?  It's Greece's question to ask and answer of course, but to the extent they are asking others for help, it is completely reasonable for those others to ask it as well.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> The core problem here isn't the debt that Greece currently has, it's the way that Greece as a whole conducts its affairs and how Greeks collectively live their lives. That's what needs fixing.  .



There you go again! We agree let them be, yes? Swallow the losses and move on and leave them to the mess they choose to live? Yes? You can't, we can't, be making these demands of them on such a personal level so that some mega banks get covered, again. Loans mean risk. Risk means sometimes their are loses. Let it go, says I. Greece can then fix their own mess their own way.


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Just how do you propose to humiliate them and move this whole mess forward amicably?  Intellectually, you're clearly aware of the culpability of other parties to this mess and have said, clearly, you're happy for them to pay for their mistakes yet you keep coming back to this as though Greece is the primary problem here and they, in my view, are not. They were, are  and always will be one of the weaker partners in this thing and they were never gonna respond well to finger wagging and moral lecturing to their whorish ways from their john pals. :shrug:



Then we just disagree at a core, philosophical I guess, level. When it comes to Greece's situation, I think they very much are the primary problem - they, more so than anything or anyone else, are responsible for it. They don't do enough work, collectively, to support the lifestyle they collectively live. They don't produce as much as they consume, and that's an unsustainable model. What causes that? A number of things I suppose, in part it's the consequence of bad public policy. In part, you could argue, it's that others have indulged their bad behavior; but it's still their bad behavior. Regardless, it's the core problem that needs to be addressed. This isn't about evil big banks, this is about a (collectively) lazy and spoiled population.

They need to get the message. No, it isn't the rest of the world's job (or, in other circumstances, prerogative) to make sure they get the message or learn their lesson. But they continue to ask others for help, so that makes it others' business. In helping them without demanding they face reality, others would be preventing that reality from doing what it does and teaching them the lessons they need to learn. Others are insulating them from the message that reality is trying very hard to send them. I'm suggesting that those others should just get out of the way and let the Universe do what it does, they've already tried helping and it hasn't worked - Greece is still in denial of the reality that's in front of its face. If the rest of Europe would do that, Greeks (in the long run) and the rest of Europe (probably sooner) would be better off for it.

I am suggesting that Europe should, in effect, write off that debt as you are suggesting. I'm just saying it should then, in light of Greece's behavior and unwillingness to identify the real causes of its problems and demonstrated resistance to making needed changes, stop paying Greece's way. If it doesn't, if it continues to finance Greece's irresponsible behavior, there's little reason to think it will get paid back anything it loans Greece going forward and, perhaps more importantly, little reason to think Greece will do better for itself.


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> There you go again! We agree let them be, yes? Swallow the losses and move on and leave them to the mess they choose to live? Yes? You can't, we can't, be making these demands of them on such a personal level so that some mega banks get covered, again. Loans mean risk. Risk means sometimes their are loses. Let it go, says I. Greece can then fix their own mess their own way.



That's what I've been arguing from the beginning. Walk away and let them make their own way. But don't forgive their debts and then keep doing the same thing - facilitating their irresponsible behavior - which is what Greece wants the rest of Europe to do and what the rest of Europe, it now seems likely, will do.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> Then we just disagree at a core, philosophical I guess, level. When it comes to Greece's situation, I think they very much are the primary problem - they, more so than anything or anyone else, are responsible for it. They don't do enough work, collectively, to support the lifestyle they collectively live. They don't produce as much as they consume, and that's an unsustainable model. What causes that? A number of things I suppose, in part it's the consequence of bad public policy. In part, you could argue, it's that others have indulged their bad behavior; but it's still their bad behavior. Regardless, it's the core problem that needs to be addressed. This isn't about evil big banks, this is about a (collectively) lazy and spoiled population. .



If they behaved as you'd like them to, as a matter of course (acted like Germans, perhaps?) they'd have never borrowed the money in the first place, yes? They'd be lending, right? I think you're expressing a paternalism that doesn't go well presuming the goal is amicable resolution. 

If you want them to be 'taught a lesson' we do disagree as they are certainly not the only ones in need of a 'lesson' if that is the goal here. To me, this is nothing more than business and the EU has already suffered more than the last payment. To me, it's all about business and keeping everything moving and this is not the way. 

And from the little I know about GS and some of the others and the deals they were part of with Greece I see no need for the redundancy of saying 'evil banks'.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> That's what I've been arguing from the beginning. Walk away and let them make their own way. But don't forgive their debts and then keep doing the same thing - facilitating their irresponsible behavior - which is what Greece wants the rest of Europe to do and what the rest of Europe, it now seems likely, will do.



Ok, so, we agree, write it off? Loan them new dough at higher rates and shorter terms?


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Ok, so, we agree, write it off? Loan them new dough at higher rates and shorter terms?



No, write it off and stop answering the phone.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> No, write it off and stop answering the phone.


----------



## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> Dude, you read the thing? Writing off debt leads to growth. ?



By what means is anything going to "grow" in Greece?  It's world's largest retirement community....and not much else.


----------



## Gilligan

I'm flat broke. Don't have a thin dime in the bank and a limited income that cannot begin to cover my monthly debt obligations.

But if you, Larry, will lend me a million bucks, I'll pay you 20% interest on the loan. I'll at least be able to make payments on the loan out of the money you loaned me....until that runs out anyway.

You will be rich. You will have earned a whopping 20% return on the maybe of 60% of the principle that you get back.  Forget about the remaining 40%.  And then we can do it again.    ;-p


----------



## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> I'm flat broke. Don't have a thin dime in the bank and a limited income that cannot begin to cover my monthly debt obligations.
> 
> But if you, Larry, will lend me a million bucks, I'll pay you 20% interest on the loan. I'll at least be able to make payments on the loan out of the money you loaned me....until that runs out anyway.
> 
> You will be rich. You will have earned a whopping 20% return on the maybe of 60% of the principle that you get back.  Forget about the remaining 40%.  And then we can do it again.    ;-p



Right. Poor analogy. However, what do you have for assets, business plan, plans for success? 


Banks lend to everyone in good times and choke out the poorer performers in bad times to the benefit of the dominant. It's survival of the fattest. And it's understandable but if you got nothing to lose, why should I be surprised if you stab me in my fat, happy throat and just take it? Pigs do well. Hogs should be slaughtered.


----------



## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> By what means is anything going to "grow" in Greece?  It's world's largest retirement community....and not much else.



Yeah, and we want them to do what? Not be aging? 

At core, one of the reasons why the R's and D's have decided it's OK for the US to become Northern Mexico is because we don't have enough young people.


----------



## Tilted

Well... that worked out well for Greece. But hey, they got to go into the voting booth and feel defiant for a moment - their own best interests be damned. But then their leaders had to deal with reality - with the consequences of their impetuousness - and the reality that they made their economic situation even worse meant that an even worse (for them deal) was agreed to. I have to say I'm a bit surprised that the rest of the EU held as firm as it did, though in continuing to negotiate with the Greeks and provide their banks with assistance in the meantime I'd say the EU caved more than it should have.

Greece still has to get the stuff that was agreed to passed through its parliament. And then the other governments of Europe have to pass the agreement. Who knows, maybe enough Greek people will continue their tantrum and the Hellenic Parliament will balk? Or maybe they better get it now, and realize that all they did last week was cut off their nose to spite their face. If they want help, if they continue to need financial assistance, they don't get to make the rules.


----------



## This_person

Tilted said:


> Well... that worked out well for Greece. But hey, they got to go into the voting booth and feel defiant for a moment - their own best interests be damned. But then their leaders had to deal with reality - with the consequences of their impetuousness - and the reality that they made their economic situation even worse meant that an even worse (for them deal) was agreed to. I have to say I'm a bit surprised that the rest of the EU held as firm as it did, though in continuing to negotiate with the Greeks and provide their banks with assistance in the meantime I'd say the EU caved more than it should have.
> 
> Greece still has to get the stuff that was agreed to passed through its parliament. And then the other governments of Europe have to pass the agreement. Who knows, maybe enough Greek people will continue their tantrum and the Hellenic Parliament will balk? Or maybe they better get it now, and realize that all they did last week was cut off their nose to spite their face. If they want help, if they continue to need financial assistance, they don't get to make the rules.



Why is it every time I read Greece, Goldman Sachs and General Motors come to mind?


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> Greece still has to get the stuff that was agreed to passed through its parliament. And then the other governments of Europe have to pass the agreement. Who knows, maybe enough Greek people will continue their tantrum and the Hellenic Parliament will balk? Or maybe they better get it now, and realize that all they did last week was cut off their nose to spite their face. If they want help, if they continue to need financial assistance, they don't get to make the rules.



I'm holding out hope for the Greeks!!!! "#### EU! #### EU!!!"


----------



## Larry Gude

This_person said:


> Why is it every time I read Greece, Goldman Sachs and General Motors come to mind?



Too Big To Fail's key tenet is, obviously size. In that school of thought, we're all one giant company and Greece, like GM, like any company, is simply a division that can be controlled and told what to do. 

It is more efficient, more orderly and controllable. 

Call it new world order. Call it conspiracy. Call it what you want but the desire is the same as Rockefeller's or Carnegie's; win it all. A global President. A global bank. A global company for each major area of the economy, all serving at the pleasure of the central authority. 

:shrug:


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> I'm holding out hope for the Greeks!!!! "#### EU! #### EU!!!"



Me too, so that the EU can respond with... Okie dokie, if that's the way you want it. But just so you know, that dude you've got bent over the rail with his pants down, that's not the EU. That's yourself. You kids have fun now.


----------



## Tilted

This_person said:


> Why is it every time I read Greece, Goldman Sachs and General Motors come to mind?




The beginning G?


----------



## This_person

Tilted said:


> The beginning G?



  Must be it.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> Me too, so that the EU can respond with... Okie dokie, if that's the way you want it. But just so you know, that dude you've got bent over the rail with his pants down, that's not the EU. That's yourself. You kids have fun now.



Yeah, you say that now. Just you wait. When my buds get their act together and un #### themselves, why, they could change the WORLD for the better!!!!


----------



## Gilligan

The political meltdown is underway....this ain't over yet.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/greece-tsipras-faces-dissent-bailout-deal-32430791


----------



## BOP

At least us drunken sailors quit when we ran out of money.


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Yeah, you say that now. Just you wait. When my buds get their act together and un #### themselves, why, they could change the WORLD for the better!!!!



That's part of what I'm hoping for.


----------



## RPMDAD

Ok, from a local perspective. My buddy who is Greek, and lives just outside of Athens described this to me.  He does not work for a union, or the Greek Govt. and does not receive a pension.  He said the unemployment rate in Greece is 27% and growing with the financial crisis, and said he already pays 50% of his income to taxes. Now the Greek Govt. may be well out of control on spending, but trust me the average hard working Greek citizen has been getting screwed for years.


----------



## Tilted

RPMDAD said:


> Ok, from a local perspective. My buddy who is Greek, and lives just outside of Athens described this to me.  He does not work for a union, or the Greek Govt. and does not receive a pension.  He said the unemployment rate in Greece is 27% and growing with the financial crisis, and said he already pays 50% of his income to taxes. Now the Greek Govt. may be well out of control on spending, but trust me the average hard working Greek citizen has been getting screwed for years.



That's part of the problem, there aren't enough "average hard working Greek citizen." That 27% unemployment rate is on a labor force participation rate in the low 50s, yielding an employment to population rate that's below 40% right now. That's terribly low as compared to other developed and other European countries. And though the unemployment rate is unusually high right now, the labor force participation rate being so low isn't a product of the recent economic problems. According to the World Bank [EDIT: I'd previously mistakenly said the OECD] Greece hasn't had a labor force participation rate above 54% going back at least as far as the beginning of the 90s.

Greece has a lot of problems: not enough people working, too much make-work (though some of that has been cut out lately), low productivity, over reliance on domestic consumption (both public and private) to drive growth, onerous business regulations and taxation, built-in curbs on competitiveness, too low retirement ages for certain kinds of workers.

And it seems some of them are quite wiling to excuse their general and unrealistic expectations regarding work. I recall an interview I saw a month or so ago with a Greek guy on the street. He was being asked if he thought it was reasonable that certain kinds of workers were allowed to retire with full benefits at some crazy young age (it's been a while, and all of these interviews that I've seen blend together after a time, but I want to say it was in the early or mid 50s).  He said, basically, yes - that was reasonable, they were entitled to retire young because of how stressful their jobs were. What position was he referring to? IIRC, bank teller. He thought that job was so stressing that it was reasonable for them to get to retire in their 50s. Of course, one Greek person from the street being interviewed does not a widespread national attitude make, but other evidence suggests that such attitudes are held by a fair portion of modern Greeks. Too many of them are retired and living on pensions. Too few of them work, leaving those that do to work perhaps too hard or too long but still not being sufficiently productive to support the nation.

I tried to find a report I read last week (or read part of, it was too long and detailed for me to read the entire thing) that went through many of the problems with Greek regulations relating to commercial enterprises - e.g., how the number of people working in certain professions (or businesses offering certain services) was limited by law thus eroding competition and innovation and artificially driving up prices. I've misplaced the link to that report, I want to say it was from the IMF but I don't recall with certainty now. If I can find it again I'll post it, but in the meantime here are a couple of other reports that help paint the picture when it comes to the systemic problems with Greece and its general productivity: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 and Greece 10 Years Ahead.

Note: There are different ways of measuring things like employment to population rate, so you might see quite different numbers for such things. The key, or one key, is comparing countries to each other using the same methodology - the same way of measuring them.


----------



## GURPS

Tilted said:


> - in return for continuing to give Greece the financial aid it needs - should demand austerity from Greece, that that is reasonable, that Greeks need to come to grips with the reality that the problem is they don't do enough work, they aren't collectively productive enough, to support the collective lifestyle they want. They have to change, they have to not be so spoiled - so the rest of Europe has to stop indulging them and facilitating their disconnect from reality.





Tilted;

Larry is stuck in wipe out the debt ... can cannot see the dysfunctional system for what it is 

just keep giving them more money ... no strings attatched


----------



## Gilligan

Tilted said:


> That's part of the problem, there aren't enough "average hard working Greek citizen." That 27% unemployment rate is on a labor force participation rate in the low 50s, yielding an employment to population rate that's below 40% right now. That's terribly low as compared to other developed and other European countries. And though the unemployment rate is unusually high right now, the labor force participation rate being so low isn't a product of the recent economic problems. According to the World Bank [EDIT: I'd previously mistakenly said the OECD] Greece hasn't had a labor force participation rate above 54% going back at least as far as the beginning of the 90s.
> 
> Greece has a lot of problems: not enough people working, too much make-work (though some of that has been cut out lately), low productivity, over reliance on domestic consumption (both public and private) to drive growth, onerous business regulations and taxation, built-in curbs on competitiveness, too low retirement ages for certain kinds of workers.
> 
> And it seems some of them are quite wiling to excuse their general and unrealistic expectations regarding work. I recall an interview I saw a month or so ago with a Greek guy on the street. He was being asked if he thought it was reasonable that certain kinds of workers were allowed to retire with full benefits at some crazy young age (it's been a while, and all of these interviews that I've seen blend together after a time, but I want to say it was in the early or mid 50s).  He said, basically, yes - that was reasonable, they were entitled to retire young because of how stressful their jobs were. What position was he referring to? IIRC, bank teller. He thought that job was so stressing that it was reasonable for them to get to retire in their 50s. Of course, one Greek person from the street being interviewed does not a widespread national attitude make, but other evidence suggests that such attitudes are held by a fair portion of modern Greeks. Too many of them are retired and living on pensions. Too few of them work, leaving those that do to work perhaps too hard or too long but still not being sufficiently productive to support the nation.
> 
> I tried to find a report I read last week (or read part of, it was too long and detailed for me to read the entire thing) that went through many of the problems with Greek regulations relating to commercial enterprises - e.g., how the number of people working in certain professions (or businesses offering certain services) was limited by law thus eroding competition and innovation and artificially driving up prices. I've misplaced the link to that report, I want to say it was from the IMF but I don't recall with certainty now. If I can find it again I'll post it, but in the meantime here are a couple of other reports that help paint the picture when it comes to the systemic problems with Greece and its general productivity: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 and Greece 10 Years Ahead.
> 
> Note: There are different ways of measuring things like employment to population rate, so you might see quite different numbers for such things. The key, or one key, is comparing countries to each other using the same methodology - the same way of measuring them.





Knowing all of that  ^^^^ is why I kept pushing back on Larry's insistence that the Greek economy would be just fine if their debts were discharged.  I knew better.


----------



## Tilted

The Greek parliament has passed what it needed to to put the ball back in various other nations's courts, or their legislatures as it were. That it would was reportedly a near certainty in the previous 24 hours. So now we'll have to see if the German parliament will play along, and whether the IMF will (successfully) through a monkey wrench into the deal as it seems to be intent on doing.


----------



## Larry Gude

I can't believe greece is giving in like this. 

Do you know, physically, where all the Drachma  are? Destroyed?


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> I can't believe greece is giving in like this.
> 
> Do you know, physically, where all the Drachma  are? Destroyed?



I don't know for sure, but I suspect the bulk of the physical currency was destroyed. They'd have to find some printing presses and get to work.

Though going back to the Drachma may have been an option, it would have been a last resort of sorts - just so much short-term downside for Greece in that. Nobody would have believed in the Drachma's ability to hold its value. Greeks would have ended up, in effect, paying a huge premium for anything they purchased from outside the nation. That problem would have been in addition to all of the typical internal problems associated with an unstable currency. And forget about them being able to issue Drachma-denominated debt, that would have been a non-starter. At least, it wouldn't have been possible under anything other than unmanageable terms - not to the extent they'd have hoped to be able to sell that debt to outsiders.

As for Greece giving in (through its parliament): Prime Minister Tsipras' quite liberal party had won enough seats to control the (coalition) government, but less liberal parties still held seats in the Hellenic Parliament. And by less liberal I mean those that were already willing to accept a harsh deal including substantial austerity requirements. I don't know how the vote broke down, but this deal could probably have passed even with considerable opposition to it from within PM Tsipras' own party.

After negotiating the deal, and failing to deliver what he had promised the Greek people if they'd vote no in last week's referendum, he (reportedly) essentially said he didn't believe in the deal. But... he said it was the best they were going to be able to get, that they'd gone to the mat so to speak and thus now knew they'd done the best they could. He apparently reframed the issue such that, now, agreeing to the deal was the way to show defiance - basically saying that Greek's foes would like nothing more than to have them reject the deal (and thus have to leave the EU?). There were protests yesterday and I'm sure there will be more, but the adults in the room knew that not agreeing to this deal would have meant great pain for the Greek people - pain even greater than what they've experienced in recent years.


----------



## Gilligan

Tilted said:


> . Nobody would have believed in the Drachma's ability to hold its value. .



Exactly. As has happened numerous times already throughout history..they'd be taking wheelbarrow loads of paper to the store to buy a loaf of bread.

I note that the anti-austerity riots have started..big time.


----------



## Larry Gude

You guys are stupid. 

Look it, here's what they do; They simply make a bunch of Greek Credit Cards and extend everyone a credit limit for the month. Whatever the average wage is, adjust for the unemployed (if they make $12 a year, half don't work then the card is good for $6 a year/$.50 a month) and this gets everyone credit AND motivation to go earn more. 

With credit cards, you don't need cash and you don't need anyone buying the debt or back it up. You just declare it and it will sink or swim on everyone's faith in it. If TARP taught us nothing it is that you can just make it up. 

If foreign entities won't accept the card, that's their problem. It will create demand IN Greece BY Greeks to supply. 
They dive into existing debt and issues and rules and simply adjust and change Greek banking laws, on the fly, to keep everyone whole. 

The pain can be at the direction of the Germans OR it can be pain dedicated to a whole new Greek CONTROLLED economic model so that anyone who needs to go to work, pay a bill, will be doing so at the behest of his fellow countrymen; not the EU and, for damn sure, not Germany. 

Greeks can pull together and make the 'pain' mean something OR they can knuckle under and still be in the same shape; beholden to the EU. 

The real risk here is Germany's. They're the ones that fear a EU break up the most as they have the most wealth accumulated. They don't wanna take my advice and write off a few bucks, which they have, then charge more interest and let that motivate Greeks to restrict borrowing while trade, that very much works to Germany's favor, simply goes on? Fine. 

The Greeks CAN change the world. For the better. Or keep on the path they are on and just watch Greece fade away and become the little EU state with the nice Islands.

Attica! Attica! Attica!


----------



## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> Y
> The Greeks CAN change the world. For the better. Or keep on the path they are on and just watch Greece fade away and become the little EU state with the nice Islands.




  You very funny guy.

Oh..and those nice islands?....going up for sale.


----------



## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> You very funny guy.
> 
> Oh..and those nice islands?....going up for sale.



You are Satan. 


Actually, that's my hope, that when they start to find that the Germans are serious, they want the title to everything, maybe that will get them to what  they need to do!!!!


----------



## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> You are Satan.
> 
> 
> Actually, that's my hope, that when they start to find that the Germans are serious, they want the title to everything, maybe that will get them to what  they need to do!!!!



ah ha ha haaaa!!....no..stop..please...i'm dying' here.    You playing this joint all week?  Where's the tip jar?


----------



## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> ah ha ha haaaa!!....no..stop..please...i'm dying' here.    You playing this joint all week?  Where's the tip jar?



Ha. You think I'm kidding, eh? Well, that is the TRUE beauty of electronic banking and fiat currency; wheel barrows full of cash for a loaf of bread is not a reality.  If they make the cards (easy enough) and simply manage the software end of it and adjust balances as they see fit, this could be the DUMBEST thing Germany has done since declaring war on us. Which was the dumbest thing they'd done since trying to get to Moscow. Which is the dumbest thing they'd done since trying to bomb the Brits into compliance. 

The ONLY thing that matters is that they control the system. From there, they can call the balances whatever they like. There will be no inflation because, with NO currency, no ability for anyone to demand more and more hard currency, it will all work out just peachy. Even if someone starts demanding 10 times what the old price was, all of that can be back tracked in the system because it's ALL digital. The ONLY thing that matters is that the transactions go through and they CONTROL that! 

 

EOTWAWKI 

Gyro economy!!!!!


----------



## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> this could be the DUMBEST thing Germany has done since declaring war on us.



Aren't you even aware how many billions of Euros Germany is already doomed to never see again, thanks to Greece???   Sooner or later, the German public is going to force that plug to get pulled.


----------



## stgislander

Larry Gude said:


> Ha. You think I'm kidding, eh? Well, that is the TRUE beauty of electronic banking and fiat currency; wheel barrows full of cash for a loaf of bread is not a reality.  If they make the cards (easy enough) and simply manage the software end of it and adjust balances as they see fit, this could be the DUMBEST thing Germany has done since declaring war on us. Which was the dumbest thing they'd done since trying to get to Moscow. Which is the dumbest thing they'd done since trying to bomb the Brits into compliance.
> 
> The ONLY thing that matters is that they control the system. From there, they can call the balances whatever they like. There will be no inflation because, with NO currency, no ability for anyone to demand more and more hard currency, it will all work out just peachy. Even if someone starts demanding 10 times what the old price was, all of that can be back tracked in the system because it's ALL digital. The ONLY thing that matters is that the transactions go through and they CONTROL that!
> 
> 
> 
> EOTWAWKI
> 
> Gyro economy!!!!!



You really don't like Germany huh?


----------



## LibertyBeacon

Tilted said:


> I don't know for sure, but I suspect the bulk of the physical currency was destroyed. They'd have to find some printing presses and get to work.
> 
> Though going back to the Drachma may have been an option, it would have been a last resort of sorts - just so much short-term downside for Greece in that. Nobody would have believed in the Drachma's ability to hold its value.



The Drachma doesn't need to "hold its value". All the Greeks need to do is be able to raise and lower the value of their currency relative to others to attract the level of inflow they need to meet their funding requirements -- tourism is one way this was done over the years. They don't have that ability with the Euro foisted upon them.


----------



## Tilted

LibertyBeacon said:


> The Drachma doesn't need to "hold its value". All the Greeks need to do is be able to raise and lower the value of their currency relative to others to attract the level of inflow they need to meet their funding requirements -- tourism is one way this was done over the years. They don't have that ability with the Euro foisted upon them.



There are other aspects of the the situation that very much would matter.

That said, they would damn sure be able to lower the value of the Drachma relative to, e.g., the Euro. But it's not clear to me how they'd be able to, reliably, raise it without creating other - substantial - problems.

Going to the Drachma would mean even greater pain for the Greeks than they're experiencing now. That's why they aren't doing it, because they sure as #### don't want to accept the stuff that the rest of the EU is forcing on them. They're accepting it because they don't have a viable alternative, and that includes going to the Drachma.


----------



## Larry Gude

stgislander said:


> You really don't like Germany huh?



I love Germany. I are a Germany. I'm just an anti Too Big To Fail guy and Germany was a primary beneficiary of TARP. In any event, writing this off and doing new biz is in the German's best interest. That said, my people, while noted for being successful on an individual basis, little day to day things, often get the big things...wrong.


----------



## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> That said, they would damn sure be able to lower the value of the Drachma relative to, e.g., the Euro. But it's not clear to me how they'd be able to, reliably, raise it without creating other - substantial - problems.
> 
> Going to the Drachma would mean even greater pain for the Greeks than they're experiencing now. That's why they aren't doing it, because they sure as #### don't want to accept the stuff that the rest of the EU is forcing on them. They're accepting it because they don't have a viable alternative, and that includes going to the Drachma.



Rabble rouser. Natering ney bob. Pessimist.


----------



## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> Aren't you even aware how many billions of Euros Germany is already doomed to never see again, thanks to Greece???   Sooner or later, the German public is going to force that plug to get pulled.



How many billions have they lost unt dicking around zee last few veeks???? Huh??? Tilted and I are already in agreement; write it off. He just wants them to never deal with the again. I am all about new business and higher interest rates, real earnings.


----------



## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> IIn any event, writing this off and doing new biz is in the German's best interest.



What. New. Biz.??  Funding the generous retirement payments of 50-year-old Greeks is "business"??


----------



## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> Rabble rouser. Natering ney bob. Pessimist.



Oh, I'm not a pessimist. I still hold out hope that the Bundestag balks or that the IMF will scuttle the deal - meaning, really, that those two entities won't get on the same page. 

Oh... and you're stupid! I owed you that.


----------



## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> What. New. Biz.??  Funding the generous retirement payments of 50-year-old Greeks is "business"??



Here is a test for you; what do those retirees do with that money?

A. They spend it
B. They spend it
C. They take a nap. Then spend it

As I've aged, the inherent shortcomings of capitalism have become more evident; pure capitalism is about spending as little as possible while taking in as much as possible; a recipe for disaster for all but the winner. 

This isn't to say socialism is superior. It is to recognize that a healthy economy, how ever it governed, is about the one thing capitalism inherently opposes; spending money. 

There is NOTHING wrong, at all, with generous pensions. If they're spending it.


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> Oh, I'm not a pessimist. I still hold out hope that the Bundestag balks or that the IMF will scuttle the deal - meaning, really, that those two entities won't get on the same page.
> 
> Oh... and you're stupid! I owed you that.



 

I'm still rooting for the Greeks to pull the plug so they own it totally. Although, maybe it would be more unifying if the Germans said "nein'.


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## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> How many billions have they lost unt dicking around zee last few veeks???? Huh??? Tilted and I are already in agreement; write it off. He just wants them to never deal with the again. I am all about new business and higher interest rates, real earnings.



I will say one thing, to the extent they (or whoever) is concerned about existing debt that will never get paid back... they (or whoever) should think about how much new credit they're talking about extending. (I'm sure they are, of course.)

The equivalent of another $100 billion or so? Think about how much money that is relative to the size of Greece and its economy.

I need to find the break down of existing Greek debt, you got one handy?


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## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> There is NOTHING wrong, at all, with generous pensions. If they're spending it.



So why hasn't it worked heretofore??  Why is Greece a complete and unsustainable basket case?  Why would any sane person or state want to voluntarily keep pouring money down that endless rathole?


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## Larry Gude

Tilted said:


> I will say one thing, to the extent they (or whoever) is concerned about existing debt that will never get paid back... they (or whoever) should think about how much new credit they're talking about extending. (I'm sure they are, of course.)
> 
> The equivalent of another $100 billion or so? Think about how much money that is relative to the size of Greece and its economy.
> 
> I need to find the break down of existing Greek debt, you got one handy?





No but I think it is 250 b eu


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## kwillia

Gilligan said:


> So why hasn't it worked heretofore??  Why is Greece a complete and unsustainable basket case?  Why would any sane person or state want to voluntarily keep pouring money down that endless rathole?


:
"Son, you are 29 now and still sleeping on my couch in the basement. As of today I expect you to start paying rent and buying your own groceries. Here take this money and now give me $400 back for rent and $200 for groceries so I can pay the mortgage and go shopping for us."


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## Gilligan

kwillia said:


> :
> "Son, you are 29 now and still sleeping on my couch in the basement. As of today I expect you to start paying rent and buying your own groceries. Here take this money and now give me $400 back for rent and $200 for groceries so I can pay the mortgage and go shopping for us."



That.   But fortunately, Greece does have a few assets to put on the block. Soon.  Won't be long before Trump will have a new country club called the "Parthenon".


http://time.com/3956017/greece-bailout-selloff/


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## PeoplesElbow

If Greece's debt was wiped out and they were loaned new money what happens down the road when the same thing happens again?


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## Gilligan

PeoplesElbow said:


> If Greece's debt was wiped out and they were loaned new money what happens down the road when the same thing happens again?



Lemme guess:   The same thing happens again?

The fundamental problem with socialism has never changed: Eventually they run out of other people's money. Always.


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## PeoplesElbow

Gilligan said:


> Lemme guess:   The same thing happens again?
> 
> The fundamental problem with socialism has never changed: Eventually they run out of other people's money. Always.



Of course it happens again.  Bailouts are like giving a man with a hole in the bottom of the boat a bigger bucket,  erasing debt is like draining all the water out,  neither one addresses the actual hole in the bottom of the boat.


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## Tilted

Larry Gude said:


> I'm still rooting for the Greeks to pull the plug so they own it totally. Although, maybe it would be more unifying if the Germans said "nein'.



No such luck on the German front, the Bundestag said: Ja, wir akzeptieren, dass sie weiterhin unter unseren Daumen.

I have no idea how good that translation (of my made up response) is. 

I started posting about the Greek mess more than 5 years ago. I worry that, to the extent I still care about financial markets, I'll still be posting about it - or at least paying attention to it - 5 years from now.


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## Gilligan

Tilted said:


> I started posting about the Greek mess more than 5 years ago. I worry that, to the extent I still care about financial markets, I'll still be posting about it - or at least paying attention to it - 5 years from now.



Isn't that something? The failure of Greece and it's exit from the EU has been predicted for a rather loooonnggg time now....yet the last thread never breaks.


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## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> Isn't that something? The failure of Greece and it's exit from the EU has been predicted for a rather loooonnggg time now....yet the last thread never breaks.



It will if I get my way....    


And the world, not just Greece, the WORLD will be saved from tyranny!   

Read Pope's and Bankers


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## Gilligan

Larry Gude said:


> It will if I get my way....
> 
> 
> And the world, not just Greece, the WORLD will be saved from tyranny!
> 
> Read Pope's and Bankers



I don't care about any of that...I just want one of their islands. Have you ever been there and seen them?..OMG..heaven on earth.  One of the bestest places any of the high-speed ferries we helped build over the last 30 years have ever operated.


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## Larry Gude

Gilligan said:


> I don't care about any of that...I just want one of their islands. Have you ever been there and seen them?..OMG..heaven on earth.  One of the bestest places any of the high-speed ferries we helped build over the last 30 years have ever operated.



No, not been there. Friends have. I figure if they're ####ed up enough, they'll be willing to import rednecks and there's my chance...

It's all about the plan, brah.


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